Jordanian elections took place on September 10. These elections were the launching pad for Jordan’s ambitious political modernizations, and the reactivation of what we hope becomes a vibrant, inclusive, and representative political party landscape. I have written about the elections quite a bit and you can find debate analysis, party brands, and (lack) of party platforms and ideology.
The general atmosphere was one of hope and plenty of apathy - the voter turnout was 32.25%, a percentage achieved due to a miraculous 12% jump in the last hour, in the midst of the Jordan- Palestine football match. Perhaps the crowd was inspired during half-time. Regardless of that, the results were interesting - mostly anticipated, a few shocking. and some were a complete disappointment.
Three Winners You Should Know
The Protest Vote. In terms of parties, it was clear the protest vote won. Previously, we saw that the population was very resentful of the government, especially in 2021-2023. But this was usually demonstrated through street protests and social media vitriol. In previous elections, the ‘protest electorate’ simply boycotted. There was usually no candidate who represented collective grievances. We had no Trump and no Bernie. But now that political parties represent an ideology and a brand, voters can use them to express their political mood. For example, why did the Communists suddenly get more votes than usual? Protest. How did the IAF sweep the election? Protest. Clearly people chose to air their grievances at the ballot box. Why? That needs more data. Did they believe the protest parties would change things in Parliament? Or felt safe to vote for them in the confidence that Parliament can accomplish little? But if we look at the party list, IAF is the champion and Mithaq is much lower. Parties connected to the system are low, and those challenging the system are high. Finally, remember the ‘white ballots’ - those ballots that are for no party and no candidate and exist solely to show displeasure. If you followed IAF campaigning closely it centered around getting Jordanians to protest through voting (Get-Out-the-Protest instead of Get-Out-the-Vote). I don’t think most people voted for the IAF, but against high unemployment, increased national debt, and most importantly they voted against the genocide in Gaza.
The Identity/Belonging Vote. Why do people support the boycott? It is a very personal, emotional issue for most Jordanians. Also, it is collective. We know many others doing it. That also carries a bit of social shame. Who wants to be seen with McDonalds or Pepsi? Finally, people feel it works. They see the empty Starbucks and Carrefour and feel a sense of victory. In short, the boycott taps into their psychology. It resonates with their identity. And why don’t they support parties? Well, parties don’t touch their identity or psychology. We don’t have social shame about not voting, it is the contrary. We don’t know many people (yet) supporting parties. Parties are still young and don’t have strong outreach….except the IAF. The IAF had campaigns that focused on values and national honor, not policies or specific parliamentary intentions. I have written about this here.
However, while most parties were unable to create a brand that tapped into the identities of voters, they did get into the collective consciousness and use their tribal sensibilities. Look at the party posters in Madaba, Salt, Zarqa and elsewhere. They feature the local ‘tribal’ name from their list - even though voters had to vote for the party list (collectively). If voters had the opportunity for preferential voting (being able to vote for the candidate in the party list they prefer) we would have seen the smaller parties perform even better.
Political Parties (collectively, but not individually). The results of this election were very important for Jordan. The new electoral districts began to shake the foundations of tribal influence. The TV debates introduced political solutions that came with criticism of current government policies. Political identities are not rooted in Jordan but the seeds are there. The largest shift though, is the launch of political parties as real institutions. The idea of political parties affected who came out to vote and why. People had two ballots 1) one to vote for their local person in their district and 2) one where they could vote their conscience without sacrificing those local benefits. It is the start of building those political identities. Also, we now have 10 parties in the party list with seats that do not represent specific districts and constituencies. These seats can now focus on the budget, government performance, oversight, anti-corruption, education, and health. They will look at the big picture and can move the needle on sensitive areas that hurt citizens the most. Politically, responsive and representative parties are a real parallel step to decentralization and including citizens in decision-making. If parties make this work AND we get decentralization in local administration, it is a very different and more effective political stage for Jordan.
My Take
Let me start by saying that this was a good first step in trying to re-engage voters and citizens in formal politics. This was the first time in my life where I actually stayed past midnight to watch initial numbers for a Jordanian election. I woke up and immediately scrolled the news for our own electrons and completely disregarded the Trump Harris debate (I still haven't even watched highlights!) There were several successes in these elections and for the Election Commission. But, building citizen trust in the election process was not one of them. Unfortunately cynicism and conspiracy theories abound and it will take more than a single election to overcome these entrenched views.
Second, this was not a complete surprise. The trends were already visible in polling research. They are very close to previous polling in IRI surveys including the ideological loyalties, awareness of parties, and likely turnout. Further, these trends largely haven’t changed. You could look at polling from 2023 or 2022 and predict the results (I know, this is easy to say in retrospect…)
No party posed a counter weight to the IAF on the national list. Clearly the IAF will be a force in Parliament and could act as ally or spoiler depending on their party agenda. Mithaq has done miserably, despite winning so many seats. They have a victorious bloc of local candidates who carry their banner but may not be loyal to their agenda, brand, or leadership and were hesitant to announce their party membership in fear of losing votes - so technically Mithaq did not win those seats, the candidates and their familial relationships did. They performed very poorly on the party list. The campaign’s lackluster approach included official-style social media posts, few posters, few videos, and multiple in-person events like community visits, panels, and talks. They behaved as if they were already in Parliament - worse they behaved as a ministerial delegation, there was no outreach there was only preaching. I give credit to them for being one of the few parties with policies, but the campaign performance was very subtle - especially in campaign communications.
I am happy to see Taqqadum received votes and seats - one of the only policy based parties. I hope they can implement their goal (and my goal) of decentralization. Also, Future and Life was one of the better TV debate performances. I hope they are even sharper in parliamentary debates. You can read my previous analysis of these two parties debates here and here.
Unfortunately, the Social Democrats did not meet the threshold and get even a seat in Parliament. It is difficult to build a brand when in a coalition - especially when your partner’s brand is more divisive. With their loss, we Jordanians may have lost the only progressive voice which could advance an agenda. I am sad Samar Dudin is no longer the face of the party. Eradah predictably won several seats, but did not perform well on the party list. They had a very strong social media talent, strong branding, and managed to get milk from every headline - even the negative ones. Looking back, Mithaq and Eradah may have spent more time competing for the same base when they actually had very different brands and could have won more by completely ignoring each other.
Finally, there are more women in this Parliament than in any of recent Parliaments. There are some well-known firebrands such as Dima Tahboub, system-friendly faces like Dina Bashir, and completely new names who will contribute to the new branding of Parliament.
These elections carried a very stern message for the state - we are not happy. The state should listen and start working on communication (I feel like a broken record), community outreach, and more transparency and accountability. 32% were unhappy and engaged enough to send that message. We should be thinking of the 68% who are unhappy but withdrawn and stewing in a deep, boiling, resentful silence. The 32% is the tip of an iceberg and it is time for us to bring them back into formal politics, institutions. Not only does the current government bear this responsibility but now all these political parties do as well (some more than others).
Today we begin a journey to building a more inclusive and resilient Jordan or we see potential irreversibly squandered.