Beyond Lists: What They Tell Us About Party Brands and Intentions.
Now that Jordan is in its campaign period, campaign posters are all over Amman and other cities, competing for space on light poles, roadside turnouts, overpasses, roundabouts and (most valuably) traffic lights. Many of these are posters for single mandate candidates - representing specific districts. Others are advertising political parties and the top names and faces from their party list. Each party has a list of names (up to 41) of who could win seats on September 10.
This is the first time this kind of party list is prepared in Jordan, so understandably, we can’t expect the parties to be very good at it. The main reason is that there's no historic record. There is no data on how voters choose which party they will vote for. There's no way to look at the previous elections and see who won and lost because of their party lists. What makes these elections exciting from the point of view of research is that this is the baseline and establishes how we proceed in the next campaigns.
So what can we tell from the party list? We know that the list is not compiled to maximize voter attraction. We already established that we don’t know what will attract voters. We are all experimenting right now. There is no data anywhere that shows the average Jordanian wants to vote for an Ahmad Safadi or a Dina Bashir. So the names on the list are not about voter attraction.
I am looking at them on two levels. First, they betray the intentions of the parties. That is, lists show us how the parties plan to work in Parliament. Second, I am looking at them in terms of branding. The list is establishing the party’s first public face for the new Parliament. What are they telling us?
There are some limits. There are five coalitions in this election and their lists are the results of agreements, concessions, compromise, and handshakes in order to stay together. Also, I am only looking at the top ten places on the lists. After all, it is highly unlikely that any party will get more than ten places in the forty-one party seats.
Mithaq
The top slot in the list is the Speaker of Parliament Ahmed Safadi., Safadi had his own resources where he could run in a single mandate seat and probably win. But instead they've put him on the list, which is a clear signal. That positions them as a continuation of the previous Parliament/government and as a list of power. It also brings baggage. For example,it was the Speaker's responsibility to introduce oversight sessions. Why didn't he do more?. Does that mean that oversight is clearly not a priority for Mithaq party and their soon to be caucus in Parliament? The second name on the list is a former Minister of Interior and former MP (in the 2016-2020 elections) According to RASED, he ranked among the lowest in numbers of questions posed to the government. The third candidate Tamara Nassereddin, was formerly on the Amman governorate council and a professor at Middle East University. Now, #4…Mr. Shadi Al Majali has a very long career at the boards of KADB, Social Security Investment and an oil company. Their number five seems to be a very young and successful construction business owner without a political background - their first fresh face. #6 Aroub Al Salahean was the head of management of the Al Faisaly football team(!) and was previously the head of the media and comms for the ministry of public works and housing. Now #7 is my favorite. Back in May he announced he is running for parliament in a local district in Irbid - at the same time he made sure to host the previous aPrime Minister and thus secure his place as his own candidate but two months later here he is on Mithaq top 10. Number 8 is a former MP and nothing much to report there. Number 9 is the head of Al Jeel club (Jordan’s largest Cricassian cultural club) so they are securing the circassian vote there. The last of the top 10 is a young lady Doa’a Al Barari, I couldn’t find much about her career online, however, I did find a lot on her father - who held many public sector jobs and was a former senator. So there you have it folks as I said Mithaq is Status Quo 2.0
Branding: A list very full of experience. In terms of branding, they clearly position themselves as experienced with power and close to power. But also the candidates are so successful, a seat in Parliament is almost a demotion. It is hard to imagine them meeting with an angry citizen group in Hay Al Tafilah or Zarqa or Kerak to discuss water or agriculture. It is easy to imagine them getting their agenda through Parliament and the Senate. Obviously a brand as a ‘people’s party’ won’t stick so they can double-down on the brand of the party that ‘gets things done’...if it distances itself from the last Parliament which certainly did not get things done (the main issue with their #1.)
Intention: In terms of their intention, they clearly intend to win and win big (like 7 to 9 seats). Once they are in, they likely will continue business as usual. What campaign messaging they have is about unemployment. In the Al-Mamlaka debates, Momani said their plan could lower unemployment by as much as 6%. But no one expects big changes from that platform or this list. This list is about continuation - not change.
IAF
IAF comes in swinging with a fiery first 10 candidates. They start with their aggressive advocate, Ahamd Al Gatawneh, who was extremely active and vocal in parliament. He and Dima Tahboub (#6 on the list) will make a ferocious attack team. They’ve mixed in some of their leaders into the top 10 like Mohammed Aqel and Khader Bani Khalid, as well as their tried and tested parliamentarians Huda Al Otoum and Hayah Mseamy. The remaining names on the list are revealing - activists that were harassed and arrested recently during the protests for Gaza. One activist was the founder of a donations campaign from Hay Al Tafaileh that reached Gaza before any other aid trucks could. Another is the head of their youth wing who was detained for a very long time. There is a young lawyer who represented most of the arrested youth from these protests. Finally - the head of the now dissolved teachers union, the Brotherhood’s celebrated modern political martyr if you will.
Branding: The list blends in with their wider campaign branding. Expansive social media outreach. Intensive coverage of candidates and the list. Videos which are worth analyzing themselves. Collages of images designed to evoke Islamic history, patriotism and nostalgia for when Jordan fought Israel: the old style green military uniform from 1967, the old style rifles, Firas Al-Ajlouni, videos of their Gaza solidarity protests, reenacted scenes of historic Islamic battles- sometime only including a subtle attire from that period, Khaled bin Walid, and many more. During the al-Mamlaka party debates, they said their party goal was preparing the ummah for jihad against the occupier, as well as establishing Sharia law. Clearly they are going for a stronger, more aggressive brand than in previous years, fueled by frustration over Gaza.
Intention:
At first glance, it seems the IAF is not interested in winning and might be better off losing. After all, they could claim the rules were against them as they have done in two previous electoral boycotts. This brand of political martyrdom - of being repressed by the state and by the security services and by the West being too successful - would justify a loss (loss defined as only three or four seats in Parliament) while allowing them a few vocal MPs. But the list and their online presence suggest they are in it to win 6-8 seats. Research very clearly shows that Islamist ideology is the most favored among citizens in Jordan. The questions are 1) will they vote? and 2) how will the vote be split with the National Islamic Party? By engaging this intensely and putting so many power players in the first six slots shows a goal is success and an intention to use Parliamentary seats to push their agenda.
Eradah
Eradah seems to own a share of the spotlight. The numerous internal squabbles and resignations have somehow brought them attention and made them more known. The very expansive campaign (social media, posters, ads on the sides of Amman buses, ads on the video billboards) likely makes them among the most well-known parties. Their brand is clear - “we are in it to win it” but then the list gets confusing. The communications are so slick, they look at private sector marketing. They focus on name recognition which is key (strangely some parties focus on candidate photos with names in much smaller print below. Not only will drivers not see these small names, the ballots won’t have photos!) Eradah gets an A+ for campaigning. In terms of branding and intentions as told by the list format though, it's a mixed message. The #1 on the list is Dina Bashir - a young MP from the Foreign Relations Committee who frequents foreign conferences and seminars. However, RASED gave her a very low ranking on activity. So, that’s a minus in terms of their intention, but a plus for the brand. The second is Khamis Attiye, a former MP and brother of MP Khalil Attiyeh. (Khalil Attiyeh famously said rape is a light enough crime that it should be in the royal pardon. He later apologized saying “the devil made him do it”.) Attiyeh is certainly not an innovative MP, but he does get things done and is influential among Palestinian-heritage Jordanians. A politically smart choice, although a bit against the brand. 3# Hmoud Al Zawahrah is military veteran and according to his online official bio he has a record in social and volunteer work, #4 Mahmoud Al Titi, a former MP, had very outspoken moments but nothing has ever materialized into a bill or amendment. #5 is Ahmed Smadi, former MP and doctor. #6 Zainab Momani is a veteran entrepreneur. Zainab launched a women's association in her small village of Sakhra and ended up employing around 700 women from her community. Zainab is a brand. Zainab is the brand. #7 Ahmad Al Daqqaq I couldn't find much information about him. Maybe that's a good thing?. #8 Tuqa Al Majali - talk about breaking a glass ceiling folks - Tuqa has served as an inspiration not only to all women but especially for the PWD community in Jordan. She is fantastic and Eradah did great (possibly the only party to have a person with disabilities in its top ten - which is outstanding). #9 is Ammar Al Bashir - again not much about him other than one article I could find that he wrote 5 months ago and the fact that he's an engineer. #10 Ali Azzir has a very long history with elections, he first ran in 1997 (I was 9 then!) and he was involved with different business associations. Zainab and Tuqa are the impressive ones here, the men are meh. Sorry men.
Branding: Eradah has a clear brand it promotes through its intensive social media work - innovative, exciting, fresh, goal-oriented. Large bright ads, focus on key performance indicators, a private sector approach to governance which looks like party campaigns in Germany or Poland. But the list does not reflect that. The list looks like a compromise with old-school politicians who work in the old way. The lower names are more like blank slates with some political experience, and the lower down the list we go, the younger and more innovative. However, Zainab and Tuqa are like adding lightning to the brand.
Intention: If Eradah takes a handful of seats (maybe 5 to 7) how will they implement their KPIs and new way of working through these former MPs used to the old way? It's not clear. Eradah has had a few personnel issues and resignations due to clashes with Bataineh. So, the top ten likely know this and are dedicated to staying and implementing the plan. All the former MPs? Will they want innovation or to do things the way they used to do them?
Social Democrats
The Social Democrats are sharing their list with the Civic Democrats calling it The Democratic Current. But the Social Democrats are the established, experienced, mature one in the pair. #1 on their list is Mohammed Al Ababneh, a three times head of the pharmacists’ association. Professional organization and solidarity is a good brand start. #2 Fadi Al Arja is an active lawyer, had a brief stint in Jordan’s football union, and had two unsuccessful tries with parliamentary elections in Zarqa. #3 Taghreed Breizat is very active in women’s rights, a lawyer, and also had unsuccessful adventures in parliamentary elections a few times. #4 Qais Zayadeen. Qais has become the cliche for anything civic or democratic and is usually at the forefront (Maan list, Civic Alliance, now the Civic Democrats). He's slowly turning to one of those old leftist party leaders that always shows up on the ballot. #5 Ehab Ababneh - Ehab is a political activist with arrests to his credit. He also started a project to help people break from fear of political oppression and anxiety #6 Sawsan Al Mattar is the deputy leader of the Civic Dems under Adnan Sawaweer and has been a supporter of his since 2016. #7 Arafat Hakous is one of Qais’s loyal comrades. He ran on the Maan list, and left Eradah when Qais did (remember that brief romance) #8 Ahmad Al Kafarneh is a political science professor, but there isn't much more about him. I am not even sure which party he belongs to. #10 Enas Al Otoum is apparently a leader in the Social Dems - according to her Linked-In profile she is a co-founder of the party.
Brand: Wow this is a little depressing. I found Samar Dudin intriguing and full of ideas I identified with. I like her campaign comms and the philosophy she promotes. The platform is intellectually heavy at times, but miles beyond what most parties offer. Also, their platform seems to match the average Jordanian’s needs and experience. But does this list match that? At first glance it looks like a patchwork of egos. I understand that coalitions break the party brand with all the compromise, but where are the unionists, the workers, and the teachers? Where is the inspiration that Samar has been talking about all this time? If they win seats in Parliament, I assume the list will break apart and each party will manage their own voting and MP actions. Then the brand can come back. I still have high hopes.
Intention: Unity is better than splitting the vote, so the two parties may do better together. But how close are their platforms really? While there is some overlap, Social Dems focus very strongly on social justice while Civic Dems focus strongly on removing religion from our political system (in Europe they would be centrists, in Jordan that is almost radical). So what does this list tell us about intention? Not a lot. We really need to wait and see how many seats they get in Parliament and who they could work with.
Analysis:
In MENA, we really don’t have very responsive Parliaments. Lebanon really is a collection of communities with advocates. The Knesset has moved very far right. Iraq’s Parliament is still in growing pains, and painfully split. Tunisia’s representation is being crushed. Egypt is too centralized. We in Jordan are always being compared to Morocco, yet we don’t compare ourselves to Morocco. But in terms of Parliament, we do have commonalities. In fact, the Modernisation Committee held up Morocco as a model. Jordan has several issues with representative democracy - a lazy Parliament, almost no trust in the elections, youth still hesitant of political engagement, and more. Despite all that, we may be inching ahead as the leaders in the region if these modernisations work out. This Parliament could end up being our most inclusive, most representative, and most tied to citizen needs. Why? Part of the Parliament is tied to representing specific districts and the other part on advancing a vision for the country. Both will have specific mandates.
That said, the 41 seats for parties will be made up of the candidate lists we have now. The above parties are some of the largest and several of the names I gave here will be MPs in September. So, if you don’t find hope above, brace yourselves for the next four years.
I don’t want to be sarcastic here. It's not about skewering personalities. I want us to think beyond the names of how the system could change. We could have an active inclusive system. Parliament has several powers it chooses not to use - particularly oversight. A Parliament can represent citizens without becoming a hub for wasta. Our Parliament has tools to engage citizens that it chooses not to use. The names above have a large power to make this experiment succeed or fail.
I am a little deflated to see so many former MPs on lists and so many MPs from the last Parliament running for re-election. Having a commission from His Majesty to modernize the entire political sector should not be done by recycling the old. There’s a reason they are call modernizations and not reforms.
Mithaq is the party of power. Eradah wants to stand out. Social Dems are hopeful but also reflect our classic problems of fragmentation among the left. IAF is the strangest. It is the Islamist, Jordanian version of Trump’s Make America Great Again. They are bringing tough rhetoric and very nostalgic images. What’s beyond them? Trump’s rhetoric vaguely recalls an America before social progressivism. The IAF vaguely recalls Jordan before a peace agreement with Israel.
The goals are maybe not surprising. But they do not carry the ambition I think they should. The people on party lists (at least the top names) need to feel the burden of responsibility. I can’t emphasize this enough. They can win for their parties, yes. But they can also win for Jordan by committing to make these modernizations work. Let’s be naively optimistic and ambitious. A win for Jordan is a win for our region.