What's the New Chapter for Political Islam?
The Arab Spring brought about numerous upheavals in the Middle East. Tunis went from a story of hope to a tale of authoritarianism, Egypt returned to full state control and Syria is a cautionary tale - revolt and violence awaits you, whether state violence or non state actors chaos. It also brought about major shifts in Islamism and Islamic narrative between three main groups.
Three Things You Should know:
The Decline of Wahhabi Jihadism: While the violence in Syria and Iraq’s general weakness and chaos following the 2003 US invasion provided a fertile ground for the dramatic rise of Wahabi inspired global Jihad movements (ISIS, Al Qaeda) they rose quickly, made a wave in the media and gained control over vast lands. However, that quick shot to infamy was followed by a steep decline. A combination of international military coalitions, Iranian-backed militias, and nationalist Islamic groups aggressively dismantled their strongholds. Mohammed Bin Salman’s rise ushered in a brutally effective campaign against Wahabi thought and movements. MBS aspired to leave behind a Saudi image marred with “barbarism”. He cracked down on ultraconservative clerics, imposed financial oversight on charities linked to jihadist funding, and reframed Saudi identity and engaged with other states in counter-terrorism efforts. MBS’s Kingdom was washing its hands clean and embarking into the world with a more moderate, progressive frame,
2. The Rise of Iran’s Shia Islamic Narrative: Iran capitalized on the region's chaos to expand its ideological and territorial influence. In Syria, the IRGC and proxies like Hezbollah entrenched themselves under the guise of combating ISIS. In Iraq, the collapse of military institutions gave Iran the opportunity to legitimize and arm groups like the PMF, embedding them within Iraq’s socio-political fabric. Yemen provided yet another stage for Iran’s ambitions, with its support for the Houthi movement counterbalancing Saudi and Emirati interests. These actions cemented Iran’s image as a defender of a Shia narrative by creating alliances that transcend borders. (I wrote earlier about Jordan on the frontline of Iranian expansion). Now we are seeing a temporary decline - but it should be seen as a setback, not a defeat. We have always seen them bounce back.
3. The Last Gasp of Nationalist Islamic Movements: The HTS attack on Aleppo and re-launching the battle between them and the Assad regime should come as no surprise. Not only is the group worried about its future with a possible Turkish -Syrian normalization but the godfathers of Nationalist Islamic thought have lost its two biggest projects the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and Hamas in Gaza. The Arab Spring initially heralded a golden age for nationalist Islamic movements like the Muslim Brotherhood. Spearheaded by Turkey and Qatar, these groups sought to combine Islamic values with democratic practices, creating a modernized vision of Islamist governance. The Turkish Qatari Islamic narrative tried to recreate Hassan Al Banna’s Muslim Brotherhood but without the strong distaste for secular and democratic institutions. Erdogan even flirted with naming it Islamic Democracy, after the European Christian Democracy parties. Figures like Tunisia’s Rachid al-Ghannouchi embraced electoral politics, while Egypt’s Mohammed Morsi rode the Brotherhood to electoral victory. Even Jordan’s Islamic Action Front (IAF) pivoted from its traditional slogan, “Islam is the Solution,” to more democratic buzzwords and campaign slogans. Turkey and Qatar were basking in their (short-lived) success. They reclaimed the international image of Islam from Wahhabi led thought. National Islamic movements and groups were the new kid on the block. But the success was fleeting. Morsi’s ouster, Qatar’s isolation, and Turkey’s authoritarian turn tore apart this narrative. The collapse left groups like HTS (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham) scrambling to remain relevant. HTS’s recent attacks on Aleppo and efforts to challenge Assad reflect desperation. As one of the few remaining nationalist Islamic groups with any significant influence, HTS is fighting to ensure it isn’t forgotten.
My Take:
MBS came in and swept away the competition he didn’t like - 1) the wahhabi project that had historical roots in Saudi Arabia and 2) the National Islamic project tied to Qatar, Turkey, and the Brotherhood. Then they went to war with the Houthis to strike down the Iranian Shia project. I use the term ‘project’ deliberately. These are not causes or campaigns or national interests or agendas. These are projects for the Middle East. The thing is, if you strike down a project, you have to replace it with something (paste here old cliches about nature and vacuums). But what will replace it? What is the Saudi/Gulf project for the Middle East? (This is especially important as an incoming US administration will likely rely on Saudi Arabia’s leadership.) Whatever that new project is, it has to be a vision that captures the hopes of youth. (Remember the demographic issue of youth majorities in our states). These hopes will be harder to capture after the immense bloodshed and violence we have witnessed in Gaza and Lebanon over the past year.
While HTS’s success or failure in Syria may seem geographically removed, it underscores a broader reality: the persistence of external support for Nationalist Islamic groups. Jordan, as a host to these movements, will inevitably face the fallout. Their presence in Parliament signals they are far from retreating quietly into irrelevance. Instead, they represent a new phase in Jordan’s political scene—one that will be shaped as much by their foreign backers as by domestic dynamics.
The Arab Spring’s legacy may be one of fragmentation and chaos, but the ideological battles it sparked are far from over. The projects that have arisen 1) The Iranian project 2) the Wahhabi project and 3) the National Islamic project are being repressed. The Iranian project will rely now on the PMF, as Hamas and Hezbollah are weakened. The Wahhabi project is domestically weakened. The National Islamic project is continuing with the HTs and quickly evolving with Jordan’s Muslim Brotherhood. Jordan must be prepared to turn the page to this next chapter, where movements like the IAF will challenge not just policies, but the very identity of the state as they pursue their regional project.