What Joulani Must Do Before He Can Rebrand to Al-Shar’i
A lot of politicians rebrand themselves for power. George W.Bush went from the Yale-educated wayward son of a Vice President to an evangelical Texas cowboy. President-elect Donald J. Trump went from an insider Wall Street billionaire to the “Defender of the Working Class” fighting against the system. Tony Blair went from an anti-monarchist radical to the person who pulled Labour to the center and made it pro-business. Politicians rebrand themselves to become more palatable to their constituency. The shape of this rebranding gives away who they are trying to appeal to. Why do this? Generally they are trying to appeal to the widest, most powerful group that would bring them support. Then,the second question is, who do they not care about appealing to?
Syria has undergone a very shocking and rapid leadership change. Joulani himself, the de facto leader of Syria, has also undergone a rebrand. The target audience is very clear - the West. The clothing, the name change, the policies, and meetings with US and other western delegations have nothing to do with his past and everything to do with his need to secure power. In fact, his past indicates the exact opposite of many of the views he spouts now - though many who have known him believe such rebranding is natural for him.
In Amman’s eyes, for him to successfully rebrand from Abu Muhammad Al Joulani to Ahmad Al Sahr’i he must meet three main objectives:
Three Things You Should know:
Fight against terrorism: For Jordan, Joulani’s sleek new modern look and talk about women’s education and inclusive governance, while laudable, don’t hold much significance to the Jordanian state - especially in terms of national security. For over a decade now, Jordan has dealt with the ebb and flow of terrorist activity from Syria - much of which had direct involvement of Al Joulani until his recent rebranding. Joulani was first dispatched to Syria under the banner and direction of the deceased ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi, and when he cut ties with the terrorist organization he did so in the shadow of a larger split between AQ and ISIS. His split had nothing to do with Joulani’s ideological differences with ISIS but more of a power play. The split happened after ISIS declared the Nusra Front as a part of the organization, without consulting with Joulani. But even after that split, Joulani maintained his alliance with AQ and its then leader Ayman Al Zawahiri, only to later split from AQ. Even then, Joulani still hadn’t practiced the rebranding he's spinning now. While he did try to organize several armed groups under his command he did so using theological sharia arguments - specifically the pledge of allegiance that Jihadi groups often swear to a leader. This was just in 2022. That year, he also ordered the release of Abu Abdel Rahman Makki, the spiritual and religious leader of Hurras Al-Din (AQs armed group in Syria) ; he was later killed in a drone strike in 2024- he did so reportedly under pressure from AQ leadership. For Jordan, all these changes, negotiations, broken alliances, and the formations of new ones do not inspire confidence. Amman will be closely watching how he moves forward with both fighting these groups and also how he will deal with the web of alliances he created with others -specifically with foreign fighters who do not share his newfound enthusiasm for inclusive governance.
The Kurds: For Jordan, the SDF has been a source of stability and security. The American backed and trained group proved to be indispensable in the fight against ISIS. They also control the largest ISIS prison in the region. Reports indicate over 7K ISIS fighters and senior leadership are held in Al Haska prison. Joulani has repeatedly promised an inclusive new Syrian state for all ethnicities and religious groups. However the reality indicates a more complex game. Specifically, how will the relationship with the Kurds play out? There have been clashes, and there still are clashes. Erdogan, who supports HTS, opposed a brokered agreement between that group and the SDF. How Kurdish ambitions are tolerated probably depends on Joulani’s level of allegiance to Erdogan. Turkey has always been a player in Syria over the past decade, having opposed Assad and opposed Kurdish ambitions. Turkey has not only backed HTS, but backed a wider National Islamist project. As Joulani positions himself between Western partners, there will be the dilemma of the Kurds - the US has backed them, Erdogan has opposed them. The US is needed to gain international acceptance and legitimacy, Erdogan is needed for real on-the-ground power and aid. Jordan is less concerned if Joulani’s toadying is more for Erdogan or Washington. It is very concerned, though, about the prisons SDF manages and if those ISIS fighters are released, either due to ISIS attacks on SDF, or HTS opposition to SDF, or any other cause. To Amman, the maintenance of those prisons is a pillar of stability in Syria and the Levant.
Disarmament: The Syrian south has hosted a mosaic of armed groups. Beginning with armed rebel groups, followed by terrorist groups, then Iranian and Iranian backed militias, and finally semi-state armed militias in trafficking. In 2018, Jordan sighed in relief when Russia successfully brokered a disarmament agreement that removed extremist elements from the South and left behind smaller rebel and tribal armed groups that only had access to medium weapons. In 2019, things took a turn for the worse when Iranian proxies started popping up on the Syrian-Jordanian border. Not only did their presence usher in the height of Captagon trafficking, but it also introduced cyber units that monitored Jordanian military comms. This was a national security risk that Jordan could not ignore. This is all to say makes it clear that on top of Jordan's security expectations for the new Syrian government will be arms control, specifically in the south.Like any war torn country, Syria is awash with arms and we really do not have all the information of the types of weapons, locations, and who has access to them. In an environment of several armed groups and terrorist groups this threat cannot be understated. For Jordan’s security establishment, how this new government approaches the disarmament will dictate its foreign policy and intentions to its neighbours. In the south, there have already been calls for handing over weapons. However, due to the poor decision by Al Joulani in his hastened approach to Ahmad Al Odeh a lot of Syrians are weary and are reluctant to hand over their safety - meaning their weapons. This is no easy task and will require sensible governance.
My Take:
A lot of people asked me about what I think of Joulani - and I honestly have not formed an opinion yet. For someone like me who has been a Syria watcher for a decade, specifically monitoring extremist groups, I am extremely suspicious of him. I am not worried over a grand conspiracy where Al Joulani will suddenly reveal himself as the new head of Al Qaeda or a new Caliph. My suspicions come from his 180 and his emphatic use of donor friendly buzzwords.
Jihadist groups are very secretive about their internal drama, they prefer to leave all the gossip and backstabbing in the dark. But as usual, the juicy drama always ends up coming out. For example, the fall out between Joulani and ISIS leadership came after Abu Ali Al Anbari was dispatched to Syria to follow up on the Al Nusra front regarding rumours of mismanagement and a lack of strict Sharia adherence. After Al Anbari’s visit, he sent a message to Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. That message was enough to prompt Abu Bakr to declare Nusra as part of ISIS and try to sideline the rising Jihadi star Al Joualni. It is important to understand that this fall out was not based on theological disagreements. This was not rooted in Joulani’s disapproval of how ISIS conducted itself. Nusra even celebrated the violence ISIS carried out in Iraq, but Abu Mohammed Al Joulani drew the line when it came to power sharing.
Al Anbari is a veteran fighter. He commanded many fighters and is seen as one of the true architects of the Islamic State, alongside Abu Musab Al Zarqawi. In one part of the letter he describes his impression of Al Joulani as, "A cunning, two-faced person who loves himself and does not care about the faith of his soldiers. He is willing to sacrifice their blood to gain recognition in the media. He becomes as joyful as a child when his name is mentioned on television." I find this description quite interesting, I, however, disagree with him on Joulani’s love for fame. I see him as one with lust for power. Joulani is very pragmatic and every move he made, even the ruthless ones, was to inch himself closer to undisputed power.
I understand the fall of Assad is something we have all awaited for many years. But we should be hesitant about rushing to shake hands with a man who has repeatedly shown that he will sacrifice anything for power. While the West is focused on women’s education and (strangely) alcohol consumption in Syria, we need to examine the state structure he envisions, including elections and a peaceful transfer of power. So far, Joulani has appointed core Nusra members to powerful positions. For example, his appointed foreign minister was Al Nusra’s spokesperson (and now an HTS attack dog) when they had turf wars with other terrorist armed groups (if you research him, his nom de guerre was Abu Ammar Al Shami). This is not a sign of diplomacy or foreign relations but a continuation of violent power politics. Additionally, Joulani appointed Murhaf Abu Qasra - AKA Abu Hassan 600 - an HTS head of military operations as Minister of Defense. He was also head of a notorious HTS-run prison. These figures in the new government are almost certainly guilty of war crimes and human rights abuses. Will these be overlooked because Germany and Austria are in such a hurry to send back their refugees? Does Barbara Leaf shake hands with abusers in order to rush a quick Mission Accomplished in the last days of the Biden administration? Jordan is not interested in the rush for PR, but for answers about security deficiencies.
There are a multitude of issues in Joulani’s past and even recent weeks that make me believe we need to take a step back in caution and increase the threshold of expectations.
We should not treat Joulani as the settled leader and ask about tolerance for alcohol or plans for women in schools. Removing women from schools should not be an option for him to consider. Will the new government contain any Kurds, Christians, Alawites, or Shia? Will they hold elections? What about the prisons? There are crimes by the former regime that cry for justice, but also victims of HTS and ISIS and Nusra that cry for the same justice. Will we see a Syrian version of de-Baathification? His moves so far look like he is personally consolidating power without consideration of stability, institution building, or inclusion. We should ask about the people’s rights, the selection of new leadership, how to provide heating, how to fix the economy, how to fix the Constitution. Aren’t rights and services and freedoms why Syrians took to the streets in the first place?