The Prime Minister’s Speech From Rhetoric to Results (and Back to Rhetoric)
I enjoy political traditions. In the past, my favorites were all external - U.S presidential debates and elections, UK’s parliamentary elections, Germany’s less dramatic elections, and contentious ones like the last elections in Moldova and Georgia.
This year I decided to start my own Jordan-centered political traditions. First I examined the parties and their “platforms”. I reviewed Jordan’s first ever political party debates. Today I want to start a new tradition where we closely examine the Prime Minister's address to Parliament. Why? Because this is the closest we have to a government laying out its vision for what the direction of the country should be. Several PMs have done this, but this year is different. [Additionally, next week I will examine the MPs' discussion of this address in order to help understand what visions the political parties are providing (if any!) and how they fit within the PMs address.
Before, Parliament was a collection of independents all focusing on benefiting their districts (and maybe benefiting themselves a little bit). Except for the IAF, MPs didn't really work together to drive the country in a certain direction. Instead they examined the PM's speech to get hints on the budget lines. Where would the spending focus? Would it go to their district? How much? A feeding frenzy.
So, the speech, no matter its intention, was received as a short term declaration of spending, rather than a long-term vision.
Now we have a number of key documents pointing the way. Specifically, we have the modernizations - political, economic, and public sector - and we have the recent changes, specifically the hybrid Parliament and the reconstructed (resurrected? revived?) political parties.
As I’ve written previously, Jordan has never been here before. Everything we do now creates a new tradition - the way the government behaves, the way the parties behave, how all these forces interact. For example, Speaker Safadi went to the offices of the National Islamic Party which is a nice thing to do. Will he be doing so for all parties? The new consensus based selection of committees is a new tradition or a one time thing to isolate the IAF?
Lets look back and compare the former PM address to this one. You can find links to the speech by Khasawneh here, and the recent one by Hassan here. Keep in mind the context was different. Not only were the PM and the MPs different, but they both had different incentives then.
Three (short) points you should know:
On the economy, Khasawneh focused on protecting vulnerable populations, a post-COVID recovery, equity of services, social welfare, and small and medium business support. Hassan focused on market-driven growth, private sector leadership, large-scale infrastructure projects. "The private sector and the government today share a single project: to create real opportunities for economic growth, especially for our youth and women." The talk of the private sector is new and more to the center-right. Khasawneh seemed to discuss an economy that is inclusive and Hassan discusses one that grows. Another quote of Hassan, “"The role of the private sector is to lead the economic construction and development, supported by government policies and stable legislation." His proposed projects are ambitious - both large infrastructure projects like National Water Conveyor Project and National Railway Project, as well as a promise to support 250 startups over the next five years. Constructing 500 new schools over five years. Training 60,000 teachers to enhance educational quality. Increasing allocations for social assistance by 50%.
On governance, Khasawneh talked about democracy, citizen inclusion, freedom of speech, decentralization, and citizen empowerment. Hassan talked about measurable outcomes, achieving technical goals, and institutional collaboration. Essentially, Khasawneh outlined a government that could make everyone feel included (despite the reality), and Hassan talked about a government that works (despite, well, the reality). Hassan noted the importance of the modernizations several times. Interestingly he twice highlighted the importance of strengthening political parties as a pillar of its development.
Overall, Khasawneh talked of national unity and Hassan seemed to be talking about strategic planning (For context, Khasawneh was in the middle of COVID-19, and Hassan is implementing the modernizations). Hassan gave the impression of focus on efficiency but with several goals tacked on that weren’t connected or seemed in line with the goal.
Now, my goal is not to count the number of promises each gave and if they are fulfilling it. No government fulfills all its promises. If you live in a country that always does what it says, please contact me. I would like to check your medication.
Also, it is glaringly obvious Khasawneh did not do what he said. He talked of freedom of speech and oversaw a very strict Cybercrimes law. He spoke of decentralization, but under him the Ministry of Local Administration re-centralized many powers. Our local communities were even more helpless after four years of Khasawneh than before.
This is not a State of the Union. These are not charismatic or memorable quotes. This is not really a political or partisan moment. This is a governance moment. .
Let’s look at incentives. Khasawneh was coming in during the COVID anxiety, the end of Trump’s first term, and a global economic collapse. He wanted to reassure Jordan and he was willing to spend whatever ended (and rack up quite a bit of debt) in order to do so. His audience? Those individual MPs focused on their districts and figuring out their job (recall that the vast majority of MPs elected in 2020 were elected for the first time).
My Take:
If I were a member of parliament my immediate concern with Jafar Hassan’s address would be the over the top promises for seemingly unfeasible projects . For example, the ambitious goal of building 500 schools in five years - I remember USAID launched a similar project a few years back. Then the goal was more modest - building new schools and rehabilitating existing ones. But the project had many obstacles, specifically when it came to connecting schools to electricity and water, a problem I understand is still prevalent in many areas, (specifically in Maan as repeatedly mentioned by their MPs). [Note: I have not found more data on the progress of that USAID project. The last data I could find indicates they completed many other goals in that activity, but didn’t get the number of schools done, citing connectivity issues].
The PM’s plan for universal healthcare, while laudable, seems very far-fetched; Jordan already has a low ratio of nurses and midwives, according to the 2019 World Bank Report. More importantly, our healthcare bill is already over the top and somehow our outcomes are falling short. (An IMF report from earlier this year examined Jordan’s healthcare system and the reforms it requires). Another big project was the push for renewable energy, which in the past proved to be so challenging. Shams Ma’an solar plant, for example, had so many challenges in grid integration that it stalled. Another issue is our flaky regulatory environment - we have a lot of changes to our laws, making us an inhospitable environment for investors - whether they are investing in renewable energy, infrastructure, or health. Sometimes we need to take a decision and stick with it (akin to how we're sticking to the cybercrime law, regardless of how controversial it is).
My question would be, how are all these goals connected? How do we pay for them and how do we start? I want to be told a story. Just like a good novel or history, the plot points and dialogue need to flow together. If the government trajectory is too fragmented, we can’t see what holds it together. It sounded like our top priority was providing employment for women and youth, but our top priority was also the safety of citizens, and the top priority is also implementing the modernizations. I like ambition. In general our capacity is much higher than what we have used it for. But it should be ordered and understandable.
I could continue listing concerns. But my goal is not to criticize the government of Dr Jafar Hasan. But looking at the bigger picture, the government needs to identify the needs and gaps and find a strategy to address them. Repeating numbers and promises from the past is a fast way to frustrate a Parliament with a new mandate and turn the public back to apathy. There are numerous bureaucratic hurdles to accomplishing goals. Share them. This type of mundane information helps the public understand and is a part of transparency. It also makes the case for modernizations and administrative efficiency. Once we achieve those, other areas of the government plan can fall into place. I am a researcher, and I even have great difficulty tracking down old projects and progress. Part of the reason is that we pursue both our goals and the goals of numerous donors and foreign organizations. Aligning those interests would speed our progress. Let’s prioritize all these and then show the public what a realistic timeline looks like, and then ask Parliament and the parties (and hopefully a decentralized local government) to get on board for a streamlined, target-driven government.
This is a new political tradition. The PM’s address is no longer a “check the box” exercise for a largely pliant Parliament. Parties will have responses. MPs may protest. Citizens will have a lot of questions. This is now a dialogue of political communications.