The Long Game

As the war on Gaza drags on and the Rafah invasion brings with it more tragedy and loss of human life, it also brings more breaking news and hot takes. I would like to step away from the breaking news cycle and dive deeper into the trends and changes happening and what each player is hoping to achieve.

Crafting policy and designing foreign policy should not be done under the influence of breaking news (a trend that the Biden White House seems to absolutely love) but under thorough examination of long term shifts and goals. 

Three Player and three different long games 

1. Iran and Co. 

The country that is getting the most of this war is Iran and its various groups. Iran has used the war, the international community’s inaction, and the West’s outright hypocrisy as a stepping stone into the hearts and minds of an entire generation of Arab youth. It is finally able to break some of the previous barriers set up either by sectarian differences and/or its history of expansion and chaos in the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen). Iranian and Iran-affiliated media, specifically those of proxies, are championing themselves and other groups as the sole protectors and defenders of the Palestinian cause. The ‘axis of resistance’. In a quick analysis of their media, I noticed a trend of championing forgotten groups - the Al Ashtar group of Bahrain, in particular. 

PMF in Iraq uses the media to advance its own domestic wins. Their messaging is centered around Iraq’s domestic policy and using the war on Gaza to solidify their own base, expel US troops, and delegitimize the Iraqi government - specifically through highlighting oil exports to neighboring countries alleging that Iraqi oil is being supplied to Israel through Jordan. This serves their goal of gaining more influence and attracting more Iraqis to their voter base. 

The Houthis in Yemen have successfully established their importance not only in Yemeni domestic issues but have now emerged as a regional and international force - their Red Sea escalation is proving effective. 

Finally, Hezbollah has proved itself as a political force after years of accusations of being a puppet military force. Hezbollah’s critics and its fanboys expected the group to launch a larger scale attack on Israel and break the ‘rules of engagement’, but both were disappointed by the restraint Hezbollah displayed. Domestically, the group has used the war to further delegitimize the Lebanese government (you’d think by now there's not much left to delegitimize). Lebanese government officials meeting and cooperating with Western institutions and officials have been used to appeal to a young generation of Lebanese - showcasing the wide gap between the group and the opposition (regardless of which sect or group). Continued photos of Biden’s envoy Amos Hochstein with Lebanese officials like Nabih Berry or Mikati just reinforce the propaganda. Hezbollah is not looking for “converts” but for a welcoming audience in a generation that will not mobilize if and when Hezbollah takes over. 

2. Jordan and Egypt  

An argument can be made that Jordan’s and Egypt’s long game is a survivalist one - they are not in it for influence or geopolitical gains. The war on Gaza, the situation in the West Bank and the future of the Palestinian people will have a direct impact on their national security, prosperity,  and position.

Jordan and Egypt are both invested in the peace process (a real peace process, not the conflict management we've seen for the past 20+ years). Jordan  - the country with the longest border with Israel and Palestine and with shared water resources, trade, and tourism - has the biggest investment not only in ending the war on Gaza but the establishment of a Palestinian State. Not only is Jordan feeling the burden economically with a massive drop in tourism and trade but its own security is, yet again, being tested on multiple fronts. As mentioned above, the PMF is using this war to advance its political position - primarily through delegitimizing the Iraqi government and its bilateral agreements. Jordan is the country that is being mentioned the most in their media - specifically the oil export agreement where they frame Jordan as a front for Iraqi oil to reach Israel. Additionally, they are delegitimizing their competition - other Shia groups - by claiming that aid to Gaza passing through Jordan is actually intended for Israel. PMF has been targeting Jordan for quite some time, especially in their efforts to expel US troops from Iraq but now their rhetoric is escalating, painting Jordan as an accomplice to the war on Gaza. 

Egypt’s peace agreement with Israel, and its leadership, are put into question with Egypt’s failure to affect Israel’s assault and failure to deliver aid to Gazans as well as get Israel on board with a proposed ceasefire deal. Moreover, the Islamic State fighters in the Sinai desert will likely remain - before October they considered moving the 800 or so fighters to the HQ in Somalia but the war on Gaza made Sinai a much more strategic place for the group to stay. IS in Sinai has access to drones, and their financial streams are primarily funded by criminal financial exploitation of local communities (more on this in a future newsletter). The IS presence is an additional blow to Egypt’s leadership position and national security.

3. Israel 

For the past seven months Israel has been waging a devastating war on Gaza. With more than 35,000 killed (almost half of which are children) and an estimated 10,000 still missing. Gaza’s infrastructure has been completely wiped out - hospitals, water systems, sewage systems, roads, schools. Initial evaluations estimate that Gaza’s reconstruction will take almost 15 years to get it back to its pre October 7th state. This begs the question, what is Israel’s end game? While the Bibi government’s stated objectives are the complete destruction of Hamas, the reality is different. Israel’s military campaign is making Gaza effectively uninhabitable. Meanwhile Hamas survives and the hostages are not free. The reality on the ground will be mass displacement of a large portion of the Gaza population. While bordering countries have made it clear that they will not be accepting any refugees from Gaza- Europe and the US and possible other counties (Turkey in particular) have not drawn such lines. Pro-Israel voices in the region even suggest using the US ‘pier’ for population movement. Additionally, Israel’s practices in the West Bank, whether it is the expanding illegal settlements, undermining the Palestinian Authority, or the restrictions, violence and pressure against Palestinians in the West Bank make life almost impossible and push Palestinians out. 

Another crucial issue is the Philadelphia Axis, the bordering land strip between Gaza and Egypt, Israel will never back down from controlling this sensitive area - effectively breaching the security annex signed with Egypt in 2005 which turned that area into a closed military zone with only limited Egyptian military presence.  Here again we see Israel adopting an expansionist model in the name of fighting Hamas - endangering its own peace agreement with Egypt and destabilizing, yet another ally. 

My Take 

What do we mean when we say the post World War II order is under questioning or is being undermined?

Globally, international organizations and institutions are weakened  - ICC, ICJ, the UN Security Council, US leadership, etc. A different issue is the modern Middle East. While the Arab liberation from Turkish Ottoman occupation occurred post WWI, the creation of the modern Arab state happened post WWII. These states gained independence and international recognition at the same wave as the birth of the UN and other international institutions. They are tightly intertwined with the established international order. There was only one moment in modern Middle Eastern history where this was put into question - the Iranian revolution of 1979. While the focus of many was on the establishment of a theocratic regime in Iran, the main threat was Iran’s mainstreaming of “Revolution” against the modern state. Iran’s main ideological doctrine is centered around exporting its Islamic revolution which then undermines the established governing system in the rest of the Middle East. 

We are seeing this trend and the results of this trend in Africa. The shaking of the international system has ushered in anti colonial or claimed anti colonial military coups. Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso have had recent upsets, and removed France’s military presence (though it remains in Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal, Gabon, Djibouti, and Chad). Russia, China and Iran have attached themselves to these movements as a way of expanding influence. Russia has several projects with Burkina Faso, including a nuclear power plant. After French troops left, a Russian military plane landed in Ouagadougou. The US will pull out its 1,000 troops from Niger in September as Niamey warms to Moscow. Next will likely be a US pullout from Chad, and increasing relations between Russia and the Central African Republic. The Western coalition in Africa is torn. Al Qaeda and ISIS continue to grow, especially in the Sahel.  The Prime Minister of Niger has said, “The Americans stayed on our soil, doing nothing while the terrorists killed people and burned town.” both blaming the US for terrorist presence and undermining US reputation for efficacy. 

Why does this matter? The wider Middle East is now going through a revival of questions of legitimacy. Iran can only advance when it creates division. This is how it creates an opening for itself in communities, by not only appealing to the religiously inclined, but also aligning themselves to resistance ideologies. It is creating a successful outreach campaign to the secular leftist youth. Through this new approach Iran is able to soften the sectarian resistance to its project. 

Israel is and has been challenging and undermining the international order by expanding illegal settlements, systemic discrimination against Palestinians, and unlawful detainment and violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. In Gaza, there has been ample documented evidence of collective punishment, forced starvation, execution and targeting of civilians, and targeting of churches. Israel is also breaching its own security agreements with Egypt and others . This plays into the wider undermining of the global order which players like Russia, ISIS, China, Al Qaeda, Iran, and its proxies exploit. 

Here we need to see the main differentiation between the three groups - Iran and Israel are actually offering a vision, a victory and a roadmap ( on the expense of the other) while Arab states and their partners  are offering a roadmap for a lasting  peace, spearheaded by King Abdullah II, however, this road map is being undermined by our allies and partners.

The status quo ante is not an answer. Conflict management is not an answer. We need either radical system repair. We need an attractive vision to captivate the region’s youth. 

The long game is not centered on the Russian advance on Kharkiv or the Israeli advance on Rafah. The long game is in Niger and Jordan and the Red Sea and Chad, on Telegram channels and in chat rooms and proxy media. The long game is not about F-16s or Abrahms tanks. It is about framing narratives, sowing division, casting aspersions, and attracting sympathy. The long game is about survival of the international order. The long game is about visions.