The Fall of Assad

I am sure you are like me watching history unfold on your screens. Thirteen years after the start of the Syrian revolution, the Assad regime has finally crumbled, like a paper tiger. Similar to Assad's own fate, the future of Syria is unknown.

In the light of this dramatic fall, Jordan is presented with opportunities and challenges, all of which will be determined with time going by and how the Syrian oppositions act now that they have come to power.

Three Things You Should Know:

Captagon and Arms Trafficking:
As soon as Hayit Tahrir Al Sham (HTS) advanced on Southern Syria, they issued a statement to the Jordanian government. The statement was intended to placate Jordanians and signal a shift in the security terrain of the South. The statement claimed the end of the chaos and drug trafficking from the Syrian South, and the restoration of order. The end of captagon and arms trafficking would solve Jordan’s most persistent border problem. It would also play a major role in cutting the smuggling of weapons to the West Bank, which has witnessed a significant increase after the start of the Israeli war on Gaza.

However, while the captagon trade presented a challenge to Jordan’s national security, it also became a source of income for many Jordanian communities along the long border. Communities that traditionally engaged in cross-border trade with Syria maintained that trade, albeit an illicit one. The challenge for Jordan will be stabilizing these communities after cutting off illegal money streams. In 2020, when Jordan completely closed the border with Syria, there were massive protests in the city of Al Ramtha. The Al Baharra, or “sailors,” who engaged in “light trafficking” of produce or goods, protested the closure — a source of income they desperately depended on. This situation might be recreated, and the government must pay closer attention to it.

Refugees:
While many observers foresee the return of refugees, especially those from the South, another aspect that needs to be examined is the hosting economy Jordan has created around the large number of Syrian refugees. For example, Jordan has created an informal real estate economy around rental properties and low-skilled labor at competitive prices. The aid economy, with several NGOs employing local staff, has benefited from funds to expand and construct new schools. Additionally, there has been a surge in employing a large number of teachers — a labor force to be reckoned with, especially now when they have informal political representation in parliament.

A Reignited National Islamist Project:
I’ve written recently about the next chapter for political Islam. MBS changed the Saudi relationship to Wahhabi and Jihadi Islam in the eyes of the region and the world. The Iranian Shia resistance model is coming to a screeching halt. Finally, the Qatari-Turkish model of Nationalist Islam is taking hits in Egypt and Tunis. Now, with HTS’s sweeping victory, we might see a new opening for this project.

While Al Joulani — now going as Ahmad Al Shar’i — rebranded long before (you can read this excellent analysis of HTS rebranding here), the true test will come when the high of victory is done and war-torn Syria begins rebuilding. This rebuilding will not only be about rehabilitating Syria but also the Nationalist Islamic project. HTS has a platform that the global and, particularly, the Jordanian audience is watching.

The way they handle governance, justice for victims, the prisons, the economy, the Assad weapons, and social issues will set, perhaps, a model that challenges an already discredited status quo and the old National Islamist models that came and failed before. If they succeed in crafting a new model that appeals to citizens, then Jordan will, once again, have to deal with the repercussions domestically.

After all, HTS is supported by Erdogan, who has come to be seen as the Caliph for National Islamist movements in the region, primarily the Muslim Brotherhood.

My Take:

As events unfold, we will have very complex and interconnected issues to deal with - a sudden (possible) halt to trafficking, the situation of refugees, security at our northern border, and the re-emergence of a new Islamic Nationalist model.
These new developments need a plan to try and mitigate a multitude of issues. These new developments will likely reflect on our own domestic situations. The King’s National Security Council met yesterday to discuss regional dynamics. I imagine more meetings will flood at the end of the year.

Here in Amman, we celebrate the fall of a brutal dictator. But after our morning coffee, we need to start planning the next chapter for Jordan.