The Endgame: What Comes Next?
One of the key headlines of Saturday's attack was how surprising or shocking it was; no one had expected such an intelligence failure by Israel or such high casualties. When discussing how unusual this is, it's worth looking at the last major confrontation Israel has had - Lebanon 2006.
Three Things You Should Know
Leadership and Threats:
The significant differences lie in the leadership of Israel and the threat posed by Hamas. First, Bibi is not Ehud Olmert, and Hamas is not Hezbollah. Previously, Israeli leadership had been reluctant to commit ground troops in conflicts, primarily due to concerns about high casualty rates among its soldiers. This went away after the surprise Gaza attack, altering the calculus. Olmert was able to act offensively with the power and reputation of the Israeli intelligence services and military. After the Gaza attack, Israeli intelligence was humiliated, and even the famed Iron Dome showed gaps. Netanyahu is on a defensive footing after its enemy scored both a tactical and a PR victory. Hamas achieved in 24 hours what Hezbollah never could over the course of the entire 2006 war.
The End Game:
Just like in 2006, Israel now has no clear end game. Their objective, however, is clear - smash Gaza and reduce Hamas to irrelevancy. But what comes next? How to govern Gaza after it is smashed? Forced displacement of Palestinians again? Giving Gaza to the Palestinian Authority? Occupying the strip? Egypt takes in the Palestinians? None of these scenarios are sustainable outcomes. However, while analysts and historians may look back on Netanyahu’s government with blame, at the moment he will have much more support on the home front for swift action than Olmert had for a foray into Lebanon. The current public mood is a bulwark against opposition and foundation for further action by this far-right government.
Changing Middle Eastern Dynamics:
The Middle East and its power dynamics have evolved significantly since 2006. First, the return of non-state actors as major power players such as Houthis, ISIS, HTS. Second, the creation and rapid growth of social media with the power of global solidarity and also additional surveillance. It has made information readily available but also easily manipulated. Third, The Abraham Accords, which provided incentives to countries to normalize with Israel, such as Morocco. Fourth, shifting political dynamics in Israel towards the right. This is especially visible in the rapid building of illegal settlements. Essentially, the Middle East is already drastically different from the one that existed in 2006. The operating environment for Israel is incomparable to previous years.
My Take:
Many news outlets are predicting a land invasion of Gaza by Israel - but most of them lack the analysis of what such a move means.
Let’s fast forward a little and speculate. This recent attack has shown that Hamas can circumvent Israel's precision strikes and advanced surveillance, which clearly shows Israel’s need to adapt. Hezbollah and Iran gained urban warfare experience from their involvement in the Syrian conflict, and these lessons have likely been shared with their allies, including Hamas. Just as we’ve seen Hamas use Hezbollah tactics in their recent attack. This has enhanced Hamas's capabilities, making them a more formidable adversary than they were in the past. Not to mention that Hamas having hostages will make this venture much more complex. We will see how prepared Israel is for on-the-ground urban warfare, but Hamas is likely very prepared.
What's next? The people of Gaza will still be living in Gaza (or what remains of them after Israel’s vicious campaign) unlike in 2006 Lebanon was a sovereign state that had resources for resilience and recovery. Israel’s endgame only needed to be militarily strategic but what about Gaza? How will they provide infrastructure, governance, and eventually a peace process? Or will Israel learn from the international trend we've been seeing - Syria, Karabakh, Rohingya, and many others - that the international community eventually forgets and moves on?
A violent change in Gaza governance, population displacement, and massive infrastructure damage will have mass repercussions in the Middle East, not to mention the real possibility of a wider regional war erupting. The international community with its rash statements and blind support has clearly not given a thought to what comes next, what is the end game?