The 19 Kilometers
On October 13th, Israel notified the international community that 1.1 million Palestinians from Northern Gaza needed to evacuate to the south, within 24 hours. And dropped flyers on the population stating the same. It also re-supplied the southern area with water and electricity in an attempt to make Palestinians more willing to move. This is a crucial step for Israel’s continued isolation of Gaza and is not a mere preparation for a ground invasion.
Three Things You Should Know:
Leadership in Turmoil
There are two embattled figures driving the conflict forward. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, faces a web of legal challenges, internal political turmoil, and the likely disintegration of his government. Notably, ending the ongoing war doesn't align with his immediate political interests. Additionally, Israeli Minister of Defense General Yoav Gallant, due to his role in Operation Cast Lead, or as it's hauntingly remembered, "The Massacre of Gaza," 2008-2009 which resulted in the death of around 1,400 Palestinians (in this current war the death toll is almost 3 thousand and counting). What these two leaders have in common is an unfinished legacy and no incentive to stop.
Northern Gaza: A Bleak Strategic Vision
Israel's strategic actions in Northern Gaza paint a grim picture of a calculated military operation. The relentless bombardments serve as a coercive measure to drive the populace toward evacuation, predominantly to the southern regions. This tactical move serves two critical purposes: it limits Hamas's capabilities by making it reliant on long-range missiles, effectively stripping them of their key arsenals, including the notorious Katusha rockets and drones. Furthermore, it provides the Israeli military an invaluable operational zone for potential swift incursions. Carving out a 19-kilometer military zone, Israel aims to isolate the area, depriving its residents of essential resources, such as water and energy.
Impending Sanctions: A Gathering Storm
We are yet to see if Hamas will be designated as a terrorist group or not - but most probably the US will introduce sanctions to limit Hamas financing and backing - this will inevitably have dire consequences on the people of Gaza.
The Israeli ambassador to the UK in a morning show interview argued that Israel takes care of Israeli citizens, and for Gaza journalists should talk to Hamas. This is wanting a situation both ways. By giving Gaza over to Hamas’ control, Israel is justified in isolating Gaza. But when Hamas needs to be sanctioned or punished or eradicated - as Israel says is its goal - it is impossible to extricate the group from its control of every aspect of Gazan life. This is a failure of governance by Israel. By not extending development, rule of law, and elements of democracy to Gaza, they made it very difficult to single out Hamas.
If Hamas is eradicated, this leaves a large vacuum in Gaza which neither Israel nor the international community are discussing. If Hamas survives these measures, the prospects for Gaza's reconstruction and humanitarian aid access appear increasingly bleak.
My Take:
While international calls for humanitarian relief and temporary ceasefires increase, Israel is still pushing through with a constant bombardment and a blockade on aid, food, fuel, and water. Israel has also announced its ground invasion but yet to start it. This ground invasion would undoubtedly unleash catastrophic outcomes. Notably, Hamas appears better prepared for such a scenario (or was at the time), for reasons I mentioned in my previous writing. Hamas still holds approximately 190 hostages for whom Israel will not negotiate as its primary objective remains the eradication of Hamas.
In this critical moment, the international community must pivot its attention towards the post-war landscape, as the outcome in Gaza may wield substantial influence over regional dynamics and the stability of neighboring nations for an extended and uncertain period.
We have a population calling for vengeance, two leaders (at least) who benefit from continued conflict, a land given over to Hamas as a strategic move, and 19 kilometers for a tactical move that may cause one of the largest civilian death tolls of the 21st century.
19 kilometers is not for civilian safety. It is not for ease of a land invasion. 19 kilometers creates a no-man’s land. A buffer zone. This is to limit the strike capacity of Hamas rockets, and to permanently make Gaza a security zone - not an area of peace and development and rule of law.