Defrost and Cook For the President Elect
Multiple fronts are currently undergoing a geopolitical Marie Kondo in preparation for the January 20th inauguration of President-elect Donald J. Trump. Different players are trying to maximize gains for what should be the century’s biggest negotiation deal. Russia and Ukraine are trying to advance troops and take land over or back to be in an optimal place for negotiations. Israel is trying to advance in South Lebanon, is currently working on ensuring Gaza is uninhabitable, and is also expanding illegal settlement building in the West Bank. Other states are trying to clean house, most prominently Qatar that has recently “asked” the remaining Hamas leadership to leave (Qatar announced that the leadership has already left and some speculate that Turkey might be the new temporary host). Turkey of course will try to achieve gains in Syria by rekindling relations with Assad to avoid any escalation with the US (the first Trump administration posed sanctions on Turkey). I like to say it is like a frozen dinner. They are quickly heating up for guest’s imminent arrival.
Three Things You Should Know:
Non-State Actors: Jordan’s neighborhood is rife with non-state actors - many Iranian proxies but not all. Think of them as unpredictable elements that disrupt deals. If negotiations and diplomatic deal-making are the current foreign policy methodology, non-state actors won’t fit. In his first term, Trump clearly disliked non-state actors. Even Palestine - considered a state by the majority of countries- was largely ignored by Trump. Trump's previous policy in the Middle East was a tactical success but a strategic failure. It failed to provide long term solutions, while the immediate effects were viewed positively by the Middle East's strongmen regimes. Trump created deals, not strategies, and by sidelining certain parties created power rebalances with unintended consequences. Sidelining Palestine had massive repercussions for the region as we are witnessing now. The PMF transformed itself to a more sustainable political and economic player in the Iraqi scene where the targeting of certain groups will most definitely affect the stability of the Iraqi state.
The Strongmen: The “same-old, same-old”. Trump has only been out of office for four years, so many of his executive colleagues (Macron, Trudeau) are still around. But in our region we believe in long administrations. Erdogan, Netanyahu, MBS, Mohamad VI, Sisi, Assad, MBZ, all have experience with Trump and know his style and work. Trump may (mistakenly) come back and think he can strike quick deals by getting the band back together. However, these leaders have different domestic situations and different regional and international goals. Bibi has outstanding charges and a protesting public. MBS has positive reforms and an economic priority in Africa - often at loggerheads with the UAE. Sisi is dealing with a struggling economy, a crisis at the border with Gaza, and a tragedy in neighboring Sudan.
The People. The people have changed the most since Trump was in office. 1) The recovery from COVID was hard. It changed the relationship between citizens and states in most countries. It tanked tourism. It widened fissures in society from inequality to domestic violence. Almost all schools experimented with online classes. Remote work changed office culture. 2) The Russia-Ukraine war affected prices and shipping. This was not as major as we expected but it's occurring during the COVID recovery caused economic tension. 3) Gaza. This has been the biggest shift. Hundreds of protests in solidarity with Gaza. A coordinated boycott against Western companies. Enmity towards the United States. Enmity towards Germany. Disillusionment about ‘Western Democracy’ after states like Germany labeled pro-Palestine rhetoric anti-Semitic. Most alarming, is popular alignment with the “resistance” - usually an Iranian messaging point which has gathered partners like the Muslim Brotherhood and been an umbrella to attract discontented youth who previously had no connection or sympathy for Iran’s projects.
My Take:
January 20 is not a key date for change in the Middle East. The key date was November 6, when Trump declared victory after the election the day before. Things started changing. It started with leaders calling him (Bibi, Zelensky) to curry favor even before the electoral vote tally was final. Shortly after, the region seemed to act on an expedited timeline. Israel’s escalation in Gaza and Lebanon increased sharply as well as in the West Bank. Iran became remarkably quiet. Jordanians no longer went to sleep wondering if that night rockets would fly over their heads. Increased actions in Ukraine-Russia (rockets hitting inside Russia, Russian ICBM) added to the atmosphere of frenzied actions. Rhetoric about Israeli annexation of the West Bank appeared in media outlets and the mouths of Israeli ministers. The ICC issued arrest warrants for Bibi and Gallant and countries must choose if they will comply or undercut an institution they support (US and Israel are not signatories though, nor the remainder of MENA except Jordan). It looks like our headlines are coming at double time with only eight weeks remaining.
Why do leaders and states behave this way? Their rush to action ahead of Trump shows their assumptions about American power. During the Biden administration so much social media chatter focused on the weakness or decline of US influence (I was one of those writers). But if states behave like this, they either believe in American power or at least the power of Trump’s personality and unpredictability. (The Biden administration granting Ukraine permission to strike inside Russia, and undercutting the global landmine ban also betray how they fear Trumpian change.)
There is one sector that is standing up to this perceived power - the public. The change in popular sentiments is a shift in the region. Groups like the Muslim Brotherhood leveraged the discontent into a stunning electoral victory in Jordan. Votes may continue to turn towards opposition groups or movements that push back against the status quo. Protests in other states will continue. More importantly than votes are dollars. Since 2019 youth unemployment has remained high, the US Dollar lost 19% of its value. Consumer habits have shifted. In states like Jordan, the French grocery chain Carrefour has closed. Starbucks and McDonalds continue to lose money. Jordanians have chosen to spend their dinars at local versions and buy locally produced items. Messaging from the region has spread and may have affected citizen action in economies around the world or even voters in Michigan.
The least predictable aspect of the Middle East for Trump will be the people. The strongmen who are still here know this. So they are making these next two months action packed. Despite the people or any objections, they are in a hurry to get things hot. Their approach - defrost and cook for the President-elect.