Recently, Jordanian MP Imad Adwan, a 35 year old specialist in international law and member of the Palestine Committee was detained by Israel with 100kg of gold, 167 Glock pistols, 12 shotguns, and 27 other pistols. Why would he drive a car full of smuggled weapons and gold into one of the most thorough border crossings? There is only speculation. Perhaps it was a smuggling business trip, perhaps it was to run guns and money to Palestinian resistance. Clearly he was expecting his status to get him through the border crossing unchecked. The story has been divisive, while many laugh at the ridiculousness, his fellow MPs framed it with an Israel-Palestine angle. However, it is unknown who the smuggled goods were for, how many of these runs Adwan has done, or what, if anything he brings back.
3 things you should know:
Gun culture of Jordan - Jordan does not have the mass gun violence of the US, but gun ownership is very common and tied to both masculinity and tribal heritage. Guns are given as gifts, fired at weddings, and during the last elections, fired in celebration by victorious candidates. Gun ownership is not argued as an individual right, but a communal legacy and pride.
Adwan’s record as MP- Adwan is a newcomer to the Jordanian parliament joining in the 2020 cycle. He is famous for his populist stunts, such as for sitting on the PMs chair in parliament and refusing to leave in protest to government policy on rising prices. He did not vote in confidence of PM Khasawneh’s government, co-sponsored a letter demanding the expulsion of Israel’s ambassador to Amman, has urged the Jordanian ambassador to leave Israel, and saluted a Hamas military commander and generally been very outspoken on Palestine issues.
Populism and Parliament. According to survey data this is the least popular Parliament in at least two decades. Most do not have transparent positions, and do not introduce legislation. But they do like brawling, arguing about Netflix, and seeing clips of themselves making populist statements. This story fueled a lot of populism. This isn’t all 130 MPs of course but The issue of Palestine has always been a PR exercise, the government of Jordan largely has its hands tied and thus is an easy target for MP and other critics. Its a hot button issue that will always rally the public, especially now with a very outspoken right wing Israeli cabinet. Finally Parliament’s anemic response to issues like investment, energy, water and economic priorities rarely attract public attention leaving MPs searching for popular topics. After the next elections, the new modernizations give parties around one third of seats to advance their platforms. I’ll cover this in future newsletters, but the newly registered parties technically should have platforms. The parties should then advance these platforms as a block that hopefully would raise the level of parliamentary rhetoric.
My take: This case is chaos and it is unclear why an MP would undertake such a foolhardy mission. Whether this was smuggling or providing support to Palestinian resistance will only be known by Israel’s reaction. If they release him back to Jordan this will likely indicate criminal smuggling and not national security in which case Israel would have to dive deeper and trigger a diplomatic crises. Different audiences frame this based on their own agendas, and not the facts of the case. On gun culture, back in 2019 the then Minister of Interior attributed 92% of crime in Jordan to unlicensed gun ownership. That year, Jordan controversially (at least to the tribal communities) penalized owners of illegal guns.
Articles of Note:
Jordanian Gun Arrest Underscores Israel’s Smuggling Problem. The Washington Institute. Matthew Levitt, Lauren von Thaden.
More on the above, but mostly from Israeli sources. It states that there are one to two weapons trafficking attempts every week, and the vast majority are smuggling, not related to supporting Palestinian resistance.
Jordan’s retreat from China on 5G could signal a growing distance. The Hill. David Schenker.
Former Trump official David Schenker argues that 5G tech from China is a poor economic investment instead of an issue that attracts US competition and anger. What is the point of this piece? Perhaps a subtle warning to the gulf about getting close to China. But for Jordan, he leaves out a crucial factor. The issue of 5G tech is more than a competition between China and the US it is about preserving Jordan’s data sovereignty and the best fit for its market.
The Threat of Climate Change in Jordan. Carnegie Endowment. Roman Haddad
Jordan is the frontline of multiple global threats. Climate change should certainly be considered one of the mist urgent. It deserves much more attention
Nationalist Populism in Jordan: A Threat to Democratic Reform?. LSE Blog. Laith AlAjlouni. (For a more in depth analysis of populist Jordanian nationalism and the threat it poses, see my piece in Century International)