Arab Foreign Ministers go their own way
How bringing back Syria may indicate a new regional order
In a gathering full of diplomatic nuance and complexity, on May 1, Jordan hosted a meeting of Arab foreign ministers. Their discussions centered on the delicate issue of normalizing relations with Damascus and the multitude of issues that come with it. Before the meeting, Jordan's tireless foreign minister Ayman Safadi met with Syria's top diplomat Faisal Mekdad, to discuss key issues such as refugees, cross border smuggling, and water - all key concerns for Jordan. This meeting follows talks in the Saudi city of Jeddah two weeks prior between the Gulf Cooperation Council, Egypt, Jordan and Iraq. The meeting in Amman likely aimed to prepare the Arab League meeting agenda set for May 19 in Saudi Arabia, where Syria's membership has been suspended since 2011. Saudi Arabia has softened its stance on diplomatic rapprochement with Syria, a pivot following its own endeavors to mend ties with Iran. Jordan has worked closely with the United States on calming its border with South Syria, as well as coordinating with Russian forces there, which have scaled back in the last year. Despite these efforts, Jordan still grapples with the smuggling of Captagon from Syria. In dramatic timing, the day of the meeting foiled a large operation which resulted in one dead smuggler. Evidence has shown that the Syrian regime itself knowingly allows or even supports the narcotrafficking. Recently, Assad has traveled to Oman and UAE, while Mekdad has visited Egypt, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia. The weekend before the meeting in Amman, US Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf visited the region and met with Safadi. She had made her position known, stating "The regime deserves to be treated as the rogue it is...We don't intend to normalize. This regime is such a disaster for its people but also for its neighborhood." Foreign Minister Safadi has underscored the imperative for meeting Jordan's security needs as a condition for normalization. During a post-meeting interview on CNN, Safadi issued a clear warning, stating that unless the authorities in Damascus take tangible steps to curb the rampant drug trafficking along the southern border, Jordan will not shy away from considering a military intervention within Syrian territory.
4 things you should know:
Jordan’s role as mediator: Jordan's recent move to re-establish ties with the Syrian regime is not just about reviving diplomatic relations, but also represents a concerted effort to reclaim its historical role as a mediator in the Middle East. This mediating role traces back to the days of the late King Hussein, whose adept diplomacy during times of crisis earned Jordan a reputation as a skilled arbiter in the region. However, Jordan's efforts to play peacemaker have not always been welcomed. In 1991, King Hussein's attempts to avert the Gulf War resulted in punitive measures from the US. More recently, figures like Jared Kushner and David Schenker sought to sideline Jordan due to its opposition to the Trump administration's "Deal of the Century."
Syria and Drugs: Jordan's renewed engagement with Syria also includes a focus on border stability and cooperation on drug smuggling issues. While critics have accused Jordan of rehabilitating the Assad regime, the truth is that Jordan is driven by the need to safeguard its borders and communities, while serving as the first line of defense against the rising tide of drug use in the region. At the foreign ministers meeting, Syria committed to forming a task force to investigate and address drug trafficking and production (“I am shocked, shocked, to discover drug smuggling from our country!”). A regional approach, which I’ve previously advocated for, may be the key to addressing the growing problem of drug smuggling on the Jordanian border and beyond.
US position on Syria: The violent Syrian conflict has had profound effects on Jordan. It has shouldered the burden of hosting refugees, bolstered military spending to secure both sides of the border and combat radical and extremist groups, and faced challenges in severed economic and trade ties. Initially, Jordan closed its border crossing and suspended all trade with Syria due to security concerns. This move was unpopular with local communities that relied on cross-border trade, including the "Bahara" who engage in ‘shadow market’ trafficking. However, even after the border was reopened, a new hurdle emerged in the form of US sanctions on Syria. Many in Jordan had initially expected that, as a key US ally, the country would be exempt from the sanctions imposed on Syria - rather like how Jordan was exempted from US sanctions on Iraq in the 1990s. However, as LA Times journalist Nabih Bulos wrote, the US embassy had met with businessmen to warn them against engaging in any trade with Syria, allegedly even threatening sanctions for non-compliance. More recently, in an interview with the Jordanian state daily newspaper Al Rai, US Ambassador Wooster reiterated firm opposition to normalization with the Assad regime, highlighting Jordan's intricate geopolitical position amidst competing regional and global interests.
Regional Dynamic: The result of this meeting should not be exaggerated. But it shows a regional dynamic that portends a future change. Bringing back Syria after everything that happened doesn’t just mean dealing with Damascus. The ramifications of bringing Syria back into the fold reverberate across the corridors of power and shape the evolving landscape of regional politics. It means dealing with Washington and Tehran. It means outreach from Brussels to Beijing. It shows coordination among the Arab League- a group which was divided by Trump’s MENA plans and is no longer united on an approach to Palestine.
My take:
Many western analysts and thinkers have argued that recent events in the Middle East are a consequence of the US's pivot away from the region towards Europe and the Asia Pacific. However, I believe that these events represent a new era of Middle Eastern sovereignty, in which Arab leaders are taking calculated steps to diversify and balance their political and economic partnerships with sparring sides.
Despite this, the Biden administration’s approach is as though the world is fresh out of the Cold War and still assumes US dominance. The global landscape has changed due to factors like the Covid-19 pandemic and China's increasing power. We’ve even seen public recognition of this among western allies with French President Macron noting “Europe must resist pressure to become ‘America’s followers,’ “ As such, it would be a risky and immature move for any Middle Eastern country to blindly follow US directives, instead of pursuing new avenues and partnerships. The thing is, the Middle East doesn’t need a superpower babysitter, and if a decision isn’t to Washington’s liking, it doesn’t mean the decision is anti-Washington. Mohammed bin Salman, who is driving a lot of the regional moves, has famously stated that “The Middle East is the new Europe” and “The next global renaissance will be in the Middle East”. Such statements would have been laughable 20 years ago.
These shifts in the region are not merely reactive, but rather a calculated attempt by Arab leaders to assert their sovereignty and navigate a complex geopolitical reality. As the Middle East continues to evolve, it is likely that we will see even more of these strategic moves aimed at balancing relationships and promoting regional stability. Arab leaders are looking at the future, not the past, and the future is multipolarity
Articles of Note:
Yet another example of Jordan’s reliability in a crises. As the kingdom evacuated citizens from Egypt, Palestine, Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, Tunisia, the United States, Britain, Japan, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, Sweden, Finland, Switzerland, Russia, Mexico, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Ethiopia and Eritrea, as well as employees of international organizations.
This recent study shows that Jordanians perceive women's participation in decision making as in the west, meaning the more women are involved the more legitimate citizens view the process. This isn’t the case for all Jordanian though in a recent poll over 20% of Jordanians feel there are already too many women involved in government. In a cultural first MP Mayyada Shreim led a Jaha of three tribes sparking controversy with one tribal head declaring it an outrageous insult against tribal tradition and rules.
This headline is an example of thinking all Arab state decisions are about the US, when they can also be about regional sovereignty and security needs.
FYI:
Check out the Instagram account of Sanad Eyad - Co founder of the Leaders of Today -for interesting conversations he’s having with young political party activists where they explain what political ideologies are, and what they mean for Jordan. If you know about Jordanian parties’ lackluster performance and citizen apathy towards them, this is a big deal.