After the build-up since the modernization decisions in 2021, we now get to see many of the ideas realized in the September 10 parliamentary elections - the parliament split between MPs that represent specific districts, and MPs that come from parties with the sole purpose of driving the trajectory of the state (well…); the newly redesigned inclusive political parties which will get 41 seats in the Parliament; the new quotas; the lower age requirement for candidates; and new electoral districts.
Jordan doesn’t have a partisan culture, and political identity is still a rarity (refer to my Jordan-specific political compass). We are still catching up with the idea and it will take another election cycle or two before people start identifying as a Social Democrat, Eradehite, or Mithaqian; before they hold watch parties for the party debates on TV; before they see party life as part of their social life. But I do want to start some of the tradition, and I began with my review of the TV debates. Now, here are three things I hope we get right, and make a political tradition:
Three Things You Should Know:
Reducing Dark Money: If an MP can buy a seat in Parliament, it is not a free and fair election. Unfortunately, our elections have been stained in the past by this practice. 84% of Jordanians don’t believe in the elections. Why? Because we have been offered money for our votes and we assume many others have also. While some voters take it, they then lose any respect they had for that candidate and for the process. How many of the MPs in the last Parliament were there because they bought the votes to get there? Ask your colleagues or friends how they were approached and with how much. People get offered anywhere from 20 to 50 JODs. For youth, it often comes from a friend who heard of an opportunity. For the slightly older, they hear from a relative. No one wants to snitch on family, so it goes unreported. Unless vote buying is radically reduced, trust in the election is unlikely to increase. This will be our first election where parties introduce large amounts of money into party building and campaigning. The parties are doing this with their own funds - no state funding of parties until after the elections. Parties can move forward with a clean slate and build their own reputation for integrity - and thereby increase the integrity of the process, or, they can throw money around like in elections past, getting a voter’s support for a day but losing their respect for a generation.
How to Deal with Losers: There are currently 38 parties and no mathematical path for all of them to enter Parliament. Some of them will not make it. Since state funding largely depends on the percentage of the vote you get and the number of seats you win, it means almost certain bankruptcy for the losing parties. If their campaign costs were low, they may get enough from membership fees that they survive until the local elections. As many as 20 parties or more may have to decide on a meager survival or closing after September 10. What happens to the members and supporters and volunteers for those parties that lost? Since Jordan did not have a past of robust partisan campaigning, there were no traditions for winners to follow - or the losers. There could be a few thousand disgruntled party members and volunteers who feel they spent hours building faith in a party that ultimately dissolves. Their disappointment could turn into apathy, removing them from the political arena; they could pick up and try again; one of the successful parties could begin outreach to pick up these shipwrecked volunteers; or they could turn to anger and protest and undo the work they had done. We know there will be many losers. How they will be reintegrated into the political sector is what we don’t know.
Get the Public On Board: For my adult life, few of the people I know have voted. Many of them have been offered money for their votes. They proudly follow US debates and political conventions while actively ignoring those in Jordan. No one can blame them, there hasn’t been much to watch yet. Now there is. But awareness is very low. In the past, Jordanians have not believed in the elections, or the Parliament, or the political parties. Now we have an opportunity to believe in parties! But we are left with the distrust of elections and Parliament. It is a package deal. The 2020 elections had a 29.9% turnout, after an additional two hours to voting time was added (it was during Covid, however). The Washington Post called it the “least democratic elections in Jordan’s recent history”. The public has to be heavily included in the election for it to work and be democratic. Sustainable trust in election results only comes through public participation and awareness. A turnout of 40% may be difficult to imagine, but it must be a goal. Low awareness, low trust, low turnout will suffocate the new modernizations. Focus on building citizen knowledge and trust must be a vital component of the process. (Trust in Parliament may be impossible to increase until the new MPs are elected and take their jobs seriously. The last Parliament may have been our worst.)
My Take
Jordan’s modernizations are very ambitious and are actually moving forward. This deserves more attention and praise than it is getting. That is why I am baffled by its imager communications. On many streets we see brown posters telling us all we have is the ballot box with the date for September 10, 2024. But those posters don’t answer questions about distrust, vote buying, how a citizen benefits by voting. How much did this poster campaign cost and was it more than social media advertising? Advertising on YouTube with a clever video would be many times more effective than roadside posters (also: billboards are high so drivers can read them while still seeing the road - small roadside posters are much less visible). The party debates on Al Mamlaka were a much larger step in political engagement than we have seen in years past. But maybe also a televised town hall with party leaders? Let the audience ask questions and share concerns. Citizens need to be actively engaged, not passively engaged. Going around the country meeting small groups of citizens (especially youth!) , hearing their grievances, answering their questions, and providing a vision where they can see themselves actively involved - this is exhaustingly time consuming but has to be done. Please go around and meet with 30 youth at a time with little cost rather than print expensive posters and pray traffic is so bad, drivers stop and can actually read what you wrote.
It would be a shame to lose all the goodwill put into the modernizations because of a practice that we all denounce but allow to continue. What will parties do about vote buying? We have a colorful group of party leaders - convictions of bribery, charges of gold smuggling, investigations by the anti-corruption commission, records of swinging state contracts to relatives, etc. But their pasts should be irrelevant if we focus on transparency, clear regulations, and equal application of the law when prosecuting offenders. We don’t want to see a weekend scandal played out on Facebook. We want to see clear rules on political money, transparent investigations, and penalties for violators. If someone tries to buy a seat in parliament, they should be barred from parliament. Simple. Corruption should have consequences. When the corrupt go on to serve four years in parliament enriching themselves, the public sees this and loses heart. It increases the sense that the state only serves the elite and that your wasta determines your relationship to justice. Where are the media campaigns focusing on transparency, vote buying and prosecution of corruption. Maybe a campaign like that could have been more helpful than the brown posters that now are drowning in a sea of candidate and party posters throughout the city.
Finally, how the political system deals with those parties who lose - who don’t make it to Parliament - determines much of the political culture before the next elections. Those people who invested in the losing parties have experience and insight. How can Jordan benefit from that? Smart parties will try to recruit from that pool of talent. The worst case would be cutting them loose, thinking “good riddance!” and letting them drift into resentment and apathy. Tell me, if you are thinking of voting, what will impact you more - hearing a former party volunteer regret their decision or an ad telling you the date of elections?
For me, if we focus on reducing dark money, reintegrating political supporters who lost in their race, and always investing in public trust-building projects, we will be much further in making our new political actions and identities sustainable.