The Center for Strategic Studies at the University of Jordan just released their latest poll. While results are consistent with previous data some notable key information must be mentioned. First, Jordan enjoys a lot of data. CSS regularly polls on public opinion, Arab Barometer includes Jordan in a deeper regional study, the International Republican Institute polls twice a year and is the only one to focus on social contract questions, while the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung polls annually and is the one to focus on public perception of foreign affairs and alliances. CSS stands out because of its focus on government performance. In fact, its last poll on government performance was remarkably dismal. The results of this poll, the fifth during the Khasawneh governments, show:
Only 37% trust the current government and Prime Minister
Only 1% of Jordanians are actively considering joining a political party
74% believe the country is going in the wrong direction
87% believe they cannot trust other people
72% of Jordanians believe mandatory military service should be reinstated.
Overall, there are very similar results to other polls, especially the complete lack of faith in Parliament, high trust in security services, and the gradually eroding trust in judiciary (However, we should clarify that when we say قضاء in Arabic it refers to the full process of justice, not just the judge in the courtroom).
4 things you should know:
Military Service - After the 1967 war, Jordan introduced military classes for boys in high school. In 1986 the mandatory military service and reserve forces were formed into law until 1992. Since 1992 we haven’t had mandatory military service until the Defense Law during COVID reintroduced the idea, but never implemented it. (His idea was more like a plan to combat unemployment - three months of military training and 9 months of private sector training). Full military service is completely different and an officer today likely made it through either very tough meritocracy or family connections - not an egalitarian mandatory service. I’m always more interested in the military as a tool of citizen formation and nation building, rather than the war games and might, so this popularity would show a desire for civic service but not by the ‘democracy’ tools of elections and representation
Social capital decreasing : This largely comes from Robert Putnam and his famous work Bowling Alone, which looked at how Americans have become increasingly disconnected from one another and from community life, leading to a decline in social trust and participation in civic activities. In brief, social trust is a pillar of both democracy and the private sector, and a bulwark against unrest (Putnam also showed it is a foundation for public health and public education). For Jordan the question is, what will happen when a state based on community ties and centralized decision-making becomes hyper-individualized by globalization and distrustful of others in the community. (Social trust throughout MENA has been decreasing since the Arab Spring. It is especially low in Libya and Lebanon - particularly among Sunnis and Christians there. Although in Egypt, social capital improved after Sisi took power).
Political parties: Only 1% have an intention to join a political party. But this could change in a few months. 1% is not surprising. Partisan activity has been officially and unofficially discouraged for years. Parties have added to the challenge by their own poor communications and lack of clear platforms. But there are 13 registered parties (down from 52 this time last year!) and the Communists hold their Congress this weekend and will likely be the 14th. It's not an exaggeration to say the modernization process hinges on the success of parties, and the success of parties depends on the first year of their outreach and communications. I will be much more worried if we are still at 1% in a year. A lot has been written on the failure of parties in Jordan so far, but their future is very unknown.
Political parties in universities: There are two issues 1) Student political movements are seen as trouble throughout MENA. Throwing nascent parties - before they have fully formed platforms or track records - into campuses of discontented youth could be putting oil on the fire. 2) Jordanians do not see Universities as a place of ‘becoming;. We don’t send our kids to explore their artistic sides or experiment with being Goth or getting into communism. We send them to University to get an engineering degree and go work and make a family. The University campus we see in American films of dorm life, self-discovery, sexual self-identity, and student politics while classes play only a minor role - that’s not our culture. So party work in a University seems a foreign innovation, not an organic development of higher education. AUB in Beirut is a very Western-modeled campus, founded by Western missionaries, and is extremely political but not a model for Jordan which is more technocratic and conservative.
My take:
The poll has several questions about political parties. Only 7% of youth believe that political parties will be successful in their work. How will we measure the success of parties? Not by the number of seats they win in parliament. Whether they are lazy or active, parties will get a third of the next Parliament and half of the one after that. Not by the number of members they get, at least for the first years. Jordanians may support them in the next elections, but membership is asking a lot. Finally, not by the legislation they introduced into Parliament. For the last sessions, our Parliament has rarely introduced legislation. (Did you know that an MP wanting to introduce a law first has to send it to the Prime Minister’s Office of Parliamentary Relations for comment?) While the modernization plan was specific in detailing requirements for parties, we did not design how to measure their success. Without this measurement, it will be impossible to judge forward momentum.
Decreasing trust in the judiciary should sound an alarm. What does it mean when citizens don’t trust an institution designed to protest them? The UN and other bodies have discussed how a ‘trust deficit’ results in citizen desperation, protests, and even extreme political views. Combine this with declining social capital. If Jordanians don’t trust institutions, and don’t trust each other (at least outside of the same family group) then desperation is certain, especially in a dire economy. As this continues, citizens become increasingly disengaged from civic life and fall back to micro-identities (we may rely on tribal identity or religion or something else).
This means that progress depends on noticeable improvements in the economy, or else a social contract that citizens can believe in. Ironically, the social contract may be swapped for austerity to help the economy.
Overall the poll does not show shocking results, but a predictably worrisome trend of decreasing trust in institutions and increasing economic desperation.
Articles of Note:
Airstrikes kill well-known Syrian drug kingpin
The airstrikes made sense for Jordan’s interest. They took out a known kingpin and a known storage facility. The show of force pacified voices that felt Assad was getting back in without conditions and it showed Assad that Jordan was serious about stopping drug trafficking and also knew the locations. What is unclear is the next step. Will this motivate Assad to deliver on halting the flow of Captagon? Or will Jordan need more unilateral actions?