The Fifth Political Theory
As the war on Gaza progresses and news of an imminent invasion of Rafah while the US enables Netenyahu’s government, one thing is clear - we are headed into a regional conflict triggered by Israeli actions and enabled by US support (For you who have missed this - over 100 weapons shipments since October 7, 2023) . This conflict will not only usher in further destruction and destabilization, but finally give the push for proxies to take control of states.
Alexander Dugin is a controversial Russian nationalist propagandist/philosopher, and has been called ‘Putin’s Brain’. He is also the author of some very dense philosophical works against liberalism and its failings. In his book, “The Fourth Political Theory” he argues that the modern state can be one of three options - fascist, communist, or liberal. But what if you oppose liberalism, and do not want to be a fascist or a communist? Well, historically you have been out of luck. But Dugin proposes a fourth way - a Eurasianism that centers on nationalism, tradition, and generally the Putin-state. In his view, Russia is everything and its national interest is primary. The faith and traditions and interests of the nation (Russia for Dugin) are how liberalism can be opposed without sliding into fascism or communism.
While this may be a Russia-explainer or a Putin-justifier, it is not accurate to a majority of states. First, it applies to large nations but not small states. Jordan, Moldova, Lebanon, Lithuania, Oman, Georgia, and the UAE do not fit into the Fourth Political Theory. Second, it does not take into consideration what I call The Divine State. (Let’s call this The Fifth Political Theory.)
The Divine State is beyond nationalism. The realist causes are not defined by geopolitical interest or resource conservation or militancy, but by divine right - or at least divine inspiration. The Divine State is also not limited to nation-states but non-state actors - essentially any leadership with a monopoly on violence over an area claiming divine rights. Now, you familiar with Weber will say, “Hey, monopoly over violence is the definition of a Weberian state!” But ISIS and Hezbollah beg to differ.
The Divine State has been a present concept in the Middle East for generations. Arguably since Catholic crusaders rode into the Holy Land chanting Deus Vult! (“God wills it!” in Latin) we were yoked to the idea that God had parceled out our homeland and selectively informed only some people. But currently we see this in a variety of groups and states - Iran being a primary one, but I will include Iranian proxies like Hezbollah and PMF, previous groups like ISIS and Al Qaeda, and the violent settler politics in today's Israel. More on this later.
The Middle East has seen a massive transformation of political leadership states and groups between 2010 - 2020. There were two major shifts happening, the two, however, were in opposite directions - the former divine states transforming into modern states and the former modern states transforming into divine states. The last time we have seen such a transformation happen was in the 70s with the Shah’s Iran turning into Khomeini’s Iran. That transformation came with ripple effects throughout the region, dragging everyone down with it - Whhabisim saw a rise, Palestinian secular movements turning divine and Jordan became more inward sunni looking ---- So this begs the question, what will happen when a similar transformation happens to more than one state with two very similar but very competitive narratives. Similar to the baseline of the Iranian revolution, the war on Gaza and reactions to it will be the new baseline for the Middle East. Just like then, the pendulum can swing either way. While all attention was on the popular movements on the ground or what came to be known as the Arab Spring - that bore promise of change and hope for the people of our region a more alarming and dangerous transformation was happening to armed groups - a transformation that has readied them to this moment
- a moment of US weakness, Israeli Settler Expansionism and collapse of international order.
Three Things You Should Know
US (Momentary?) Weakness: The prediction of a US power collapse is decades old and went from a dire prophecy to a myth to a campaign point for Republicans. The collapse of US power has not happened yet due to several factors.
After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the US was left as the only superpower. This was the unipolar moment as Charles Krauthammer wrote. This was also the optimistic period of Francis Fukuyama’s The End of History - the idea that liberal democracy and capitalism had won the battle of ideas (Fukuyama and Dugin can be thought of as polar opposites). But the evacuation from Afghanistan, expulsion from African states like Niger where China, Russia and Iranare expanding influence, an extended budget fight from a deeply divided Congress which delays foreign support, widespread University protests, and a very contentious upcoming presidential election. Detractors of the US will point to these as evidence of decline, supporters of the US will at least admit that there are a lot of distractions for the US and its focus on global leadership is not as robust as it could be.
Israeli Settler Expansionism: I have written previously about the divide between the Security State and the Settler State in Israel. These two sides are united under a national interest but diametrically opposed in practice. The Security State represents the founding of Israel going back to the time of David Ben-Gurion. Ben-Gurion came from a leftist East European background and used that to develop institutions from kibbutzim to the IDF in service of the national idea. At that time Zionism was secular, leftist, and grounded in the experience of European anti-semitism. This is neither today’s Zionism nor today’s Israel. Settler expansionism is no longer fringe or an outlier, its not even just policy. It's a priority policy. Settler groups now have several seats in the Knesset and government. The story is that Obama did not grasp the reality of settler expansionism until his team showed him a map of Palestine, dotted and broken by dozens of settlement territories. Obama was late to the game then. Settler expansionism has been the main policy against Palestinian cohesion for almost two decades. Israel has turned from a modern state into a Divine State. While very different, Hezbollah, the Houthis (Ansaru Allah), and the Popular Mobilization Front (PMF) fall into the Divine State. They are not recognized states, but they do behave like states when it comes to monopolizing violence in their territories. What unites them is not violence, Islam, or their presence in the Middle East. What unites them is their use of religion for motivation, coercion, inspiration, and absolute certainty in the correctness of what they pursue. What is different is that these three groups (and arguably the Muslim Brotherhood, ISIS, and Al Qaeda) are the divine successors to what were ‘modern’ state and non-state actors that fit into the original three theories Dugin rails against. Baathism, Arab Nationalism, the Palestinian Front for Liberation Party, the Palestinian Liberation Organization, and even Zionism were grounded in secular, leftist politics, with a sprinkling of nationalist fascism. The Middle East - Arab and Israeli - were largely oriented towards the left.
Collapse of the Post-WWII Order: Multiple books have been written on
this from the mournful liberal to the rabid conspiracy theorist. Pillars of this system have been a reliance on US leadership, jurisdiction of international organizations, globalization and the global economic order, normative expectations on human rights and fundamental freedoms, and global security infrastructure (NATO, UN peacekeepers, Responsibility to Protect, international conventions on nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, prisoners of war, landmines, etc.). It seems evident that we have passed the criteria for Responsibility to Protect in Gaza and the international community is largely silent. The global economic order was split when SWIFT and Apple Pay were removed from Russia in reaction to their invasion of Ukraine. Free trade stopped in favor of sanctions, undercutting the favored liberal ideal that market interaction builds peace and understanding. US leadership is in a strange place right now and will continue to devolve until the hyper-partisan divides of decision-makers simmers down. As Niall Ferguson has noted, this year is the first where US payments on external debt are higher than the defense budget - a definite red flag. The trust in international organizations will eb strained at the ICC and ICJ by the cases against Israel. This year's elections for the European Parliament will also be a test. I am not saying the order has collapsed but there are dozens of worrying signs and every new broadside from fresh weapons deliveries to Israel to the letter from GOP senators stating “You have been warned” to the ICC over charges against Netanyahu, just add to the concern.
My Take
There are many worrying ideas here. First, I never thought I would cite Aleksander Dugin, but am only doing it to show a gap in his ideas. His writing really only addresses ‘great powers’ and showcases Russia. But most states are not great powers but victims of great power policies. Also, his ‘fourth’ political theory rightly highlights a nationalism that is on the rise, but does not include the Divine State - those citing not national expansion, not hegemony, not Manifest Destiny, but a belief in Divine Intent over geography. Second, the idea of US leadership fading is a disturbing one - especially for many actors in the Middle East such as Jordan. Thinkers in our part of the world have cited 1979 Iran as a political earthquake which affected all of us. I say this is a second earthquake and for much of the same reason - the Divine State.
We are witnessing two very similar but competing narratives of the state. Iran and its proxies have a deeply embedded divine claim over the state and leadership. Israel’s transformation from a security state to a settler state has also ushered in leadership prioritizing the Divine over the secular state - and the Divine has no internationally recognized borders - hence the conflict and the potential for expansion. A quick analysis of the competing forces shows the religious roots of each movement - and both are feeding off one another. The victim here is the concept of the modern state. The Middle East has been split between two very violent and expansionist Divine States surrounding and besieging the Modern States (and the ever hoped for Palestinian state). Wait, am I comparing Israel to Iran? Not really. But I am comparing both of them to Crusaders. They believe God wills their policy and any price can be paid for His will.
Why current US leadership is worrisome is that what the US is doing right now is promoting the Divine state over the Weberian state. By backing Netanyahu-Ben Gvir-Smotrich leadership, the US undercuts the original vision for a modern Israeli state. It also fuels the rise of Divine resistance or other opposing Divine States ( Iran, Lebanon with Hezbollah, Iraq with PMF, and Yemen with Ansaru Allah). Who loses here? The modern state. Jordan is the model here. Iraq is struggling to become a stable modern state. Egypt is a modern state under threat.
The Middle East is not a distant and complex region of the world. It is a disservice to dismiss violence here with “here they go again!”. This is a global shift - the rise of religious fundamentalism and religious politics in response to modernization. This is another battle in the war against modernity by conservative groups. This is not Middle East specific. It is intensified in the Middle East because of the emergence of armed groups and the weakening of the state. (A note on Israel, we are all aware that Israel was a modern state for one population, and a cruel occupier to another for decades. What is new is the destruction of the modern state for all.) This is the moment that the two divine right groups are trying to expand- both after the same goal and both affecting the ideals of international order. Maybe the international community should also pause and reflect on what is at stake? Nothing short of the international order of modern states we fought for. So how should such states like Jordan respond?