ISIS: A Strategic Revamp
While the caliphate has collapsed and ISIS has lost financial streams, appeal and lost a lot of leadership (4 leaders killed in 4 years and killing most of the core founders of the organization), the threat still continues. This is especially true in the MENA region and West Africa where their threat is growing and influence expanding. In a previous newsletter I discussed ISIS’s regrouping and quiet strengthening in the south of Syria - where they operate under the chaos of violence in South Syria. And while south Syria poses a direct threat to Jordan’s security and border another quiet resurgence is happening a little further but with more dangerous consequences, not to Jordan alone but to the region and world at large. ISIS in Sinai and West Africa.
Three Things You Should Know:
Where is the group now: While certain ISIS groups are gaining notoriety and getting media attention, such as ISIS in Afghanistan and in West Africa, the reality is that ISIS has created eight distinct regional structures overseeing specific areas: 1) Bilad Al Rafidain- Iraq 2) Blessed land office -Greater Syria 3) Al Siddiq- Afghanistan 4) Karar - Somalia 5) Furqan - West Africa 6) Anfal- Libya 7) Thi-Annourain - Sinai and 8) Umm Al Qura - Yemen. These regional offices have different operational capacities and combat readiness. The two offices that get the most anttention are Khurasan or Al Siddiq office in Afghanistan and Al Furqan office in West Africa. These two offices were able to carry out the most attacks in and outside of their operational borders. They have strong financial resources and can operate more freely due to the local conditions in their respective regions - large sparsely populated areas with little government reach and a high appetite for corruption. ISIS doesn’t follow a rigid hierarchical structure. Rather these eight offices are interconnected and usually serve as financial and logistical support for each other, rather than under a centralized leadership.
ISIS in Sinai: The Tha-Annourain office led by Abu Hafas Al Ansari is one of ISIS’s 8 offices. This organization appeared on the Egyptian scene in 2014 when the group Ansar Bayt Al Maqdis pledged loyalty to ISIS and its then Caliph Abu Bakr Al Baghdadi. Their presence in Sinai, which does not exceed 1,200 members, has been weakened due to the successful Egyptian military campaign and the Sinai tribal coalition. As a result of this pressure, members were forced to move deeper into unpopulated desert areas. They now mainly operate in five key regions. ( Areesh, Sheikh Zuwayed, Rafah, Bier Al Abed and Al Joura) and while their numbers are relatively small they have proved effective. They are well equipped, in possession of drones, advanced weapons, and are able to carry out complex military operations against the Egyptian military. The financial resources for the group have dwindled and they now rely on three main resources 1) Direct financial assistance from the Khourasan or the Al -Siddiq office in Afghanistan 2) ransoms and bribes 3) looting of military supply trucks and points.
A Strategic Revamp: While the Thi-Annourain office’s attacks were mostly in the Egyptian Sinai desert against military personnel and the local community, there are indications of the groups refocus and interest in creating cells of operation in Egyptian cities. Documents obtained by the Egyptian military during numerous attacks against the group revealed directions, plans, and methods for targeting specific security and vital sites in Egyptian cities. Additionally, various ISIS media outlets show there is a clear shift for centralized messaging led primarily by the West Africa/ Somalia offices, as its attacks and recruiting are featured more heavily. This might indicate a revamp is underway. It is safe to assume that the ISIS Sinai office could be absorbed by the Somalia and West Africa offices. While West Africa and Somalia are arguably the strongest offices, they are struggling to become a hub for foreign fighters and primarily depend on the local population. Absorbing the Sinai office will facilitate the transit of fighters between the three main hubs of Turkey, Egypt and Sudan. Creating this unit will allow ISIS to expand into Egypt beyond Sinai and facilitate the travel of their members and provide them with safehouses in the area. Strategically, this merger makes sense. This re-strategizing would also mean that West Africa could also become the new ISIS leadership hub and central command . West Africa faces the challenge of low recruitment, but successful operations and communications. By moving beyond Sudan to include Sinai, it taps into those new regions as well as facilitating the heavy recruitment regions of Turkey into their network. Where Turkey was once a hub for fighters, Egypt will be that hub, with management by the West Africa office.
My Take:
The potential destabilization of Egypt by ISIS is a significant concern, particularly as the group recruits new members and forms pop-up cells in response to the war in Gaza. A new ISIS stronghold in West Africa, bolstered by financial streams from drug trafficking and looting, indicates a strategic shift. This shift could allow ISIS, having waned in appeal, to regain its influence by creating new travel routes for its members to operate in less hostile areas.
The resulting chaos in Egypt would likely spill over into Palestine, especially Gaza, leading to a new wave of terror across the region. Jordan's warnings about the threat of terror and violence are not mere alarmism. Historically, the Jordanian state has been prescient regarding terrorist activities from Al-Qaeda to Carlos the Jackal. The book The Looming Tower, which details the lead-up to 9/11, mentions stacks of unread documents about Al-Qaeda sent by Jordan that were piled up in the FBI's New York offices. Listening to Jordan is often wise.
ISIS thriving on chaos and desperation, targets the vulnerable and impressionable, while rebuilding in remote locations. Recruiting 15 year-olds for minor attacks, continues a facade of anarchic chaos, while they build a structured organization in West Africa for larger future endeavors. While current efforts focus on thwarting these smaller chaotic attacks, a broader view is necessary to understand the trends in terrorist activities. ISIS wants its enemies to take a whack-a-mole approach and not notice its long term activities. We should not rank ISIS offices by the frequency or complexity of their attacks. Instead, we need to evaluate the group's revamped strategy and identify strategically important regions and financial streams that enable them to reassemble and establish a strong presence once again.
Geography, political instability, and violence create fertile ground for ISIS's adaptive and ruthless strategies. Despite efforts to eliminate its leadership, ISIS continues to grow and is on the brink of re-establishing its influence and operational centers.